A developing tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche could bring higher rain chances to the Texas Gulf Coast, Rio Grande Valley, and South Texas Friday into Saturday — plus a surge in dangerous rip currents along the coast.
Tropical Disturbance Near Mexico’s Coast
An area of thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche is moving northwest toward northern Mexico and possibly southern Texas over the next two days. This system may organize into an area of low pressure, with the potential to become a tropical depression.
For now, most forecast models keep the heaviest impacts offshore, but coastal communities should prepare for higher rain chances, stronger rip currents, and choppy Gulf waters by the weekend. If the system does strengthen into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, impacts onshore are still expected to be minimal outside of localized downpours.
Tropical Storm Erin Strengthening in the Atlantic
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Erin is moving quickly west across the open Atlantic. It’s forecast to become a large, powerful hurricane by the weekend, likely passing east of the Bahamas and between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda next week.
Erin will send dangerous rip currents and large swells toward much of the Atlantic-facing U.S. coastline. While it’s worth monitoring for Bermuda and the Outer Banks, Erin poses no threat to the Gulf or Texas weather.
Pop-Up Storms & August Heat Across Texas
Away from the tropics, monsoonal moisture will bring scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the western third of Texas for the next few days. Southeast Texas may see isolated storms today, while coastal and nearby inland areas will see higher rain chances starting Friday.
Temperatures remain hot and seasonable for August, with highs in the 90s to low triple digits. Laredo will sizzle near 106°F today and tomorrow.
Looking Ahead
Next week, the upper-level heat dome is expected to shift back toward the Four Corners region of the western U.S. This may slightly reduce sinking air over Texas, allowing for more afternoon pop-up storms — a welcome break that could help ease wildfire danger building across the state.