Rain has moved into the Rio Grande Valley as a tropical disturbance makes landfall in South Texas and northern Mexico. Although the system was unable to develop further and is not expected to become a tropical depression or storm, dangerous rip currents will persist along the Texas Gulf Coast this weekend.
Isolated to scattered flash flooding may occur in the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas this afternoon and evening. Farther north, across the coastal plains of Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible, bringing locally heavy rainfall, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds.
Tonight, a small area of showers may continue across parts of South Central Texas and the Hill Country, with the potential for heavier rain totals. We will monitor this situation in case it becomes more likely, but for now, expect at least the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms.
As we move into Saturday, pop-up thunderstorms could occur in these same regions during the peak heating hours of the daytime. In far West Texas and the El Paso borderland, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely, which may also bring locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and the potential for street flooding.
Looking ahead to next week, an upper-level heat dome and an area of high pressure will begin to move into the southwestern United States, bringing a weak northerly flow. This will lead to an increase in pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially across the western half of Texas and likely in the eastern and southern regions. These thunderstorm chances will not impact everyone, with the highest likelihood of showers occurring during peak heating hours in the afternoon.
Beginning Wednesday of next week, we may need to watch areas north of Texas for southward-moving complexes of thunderstorms due to the weak northerly flow aloft. Over the next several days, high temperatures will be typical for August, mostly ranging from the 90s to triple digits. We may start to see temperatures decrease slightly as the heat dome shifts west of the state.
In the open Atlantic, Hurricane Aaron is moving west-northwest and will pass north of Puerto Rico this weekend. Next week, the hurricane is expected to take a northern turn and likely pass east of the United States and west of Bermuda as a powerful storm. Dangerous rip currents and increased wave action are anticipated along the East Coast of the United States.
You can keep track of the rain with our free interactive weather here on our website.