Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase today across Texas as the heat dome shifts into the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States. Of course, we’re also keeping an eye on the tropics. This August has brought a busy weather pattern to Texas, and we appreciate you tuning in for the latest updates.
This afternoon, tonight, and Wednesday will bring scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms to various regions of Texas as we lose the sinking air or subsidence overhead, allowing all that tropical moisture to generate rain showers and thunderstorms. We may see activity moving southwest tonight and into Wednesday. This situation is characterized by a lack of upper-level steering currents and numerous outflow boundaries.
While many may miss out on rain over the next few days, those nearby can expect a nearby lightning show. Unlike most summer days, thunderstorm chances could persist well into tonight, presenting an opportunity for a natural light display. All thunderstorms will produce dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rain. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors! Gusty winds and small hail may accompany stronger storms. Widespread severe thunderstorm activity is not expected at this time, but rain chances will continue into Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some areas may receive a quick couple of inches of rain if they are under a heavier storm or affected by multiple storms over the next few days.
On the bright side, if you are near a storm, your temperature should cool off nicely for several hours or even the remainder of the afternoon. We expect rain chances to decrease later in the week, unless you are in the Panhandle or near the Texas Gulf Coast. Temperatures will also begin to cool down a few degrees as we approach the second half of the workweek, although Texarkana may reach 105 degrees this afternoon, potentially marking their hottest day of the summer.
In the tropics, the Atlantic is active with three systems of interest over the next seven days. Hurricane Aaron is expected to bring significant coastal flooding impacts to parts of the eastern and northeastern United States over the coming days, along with strong winds to the Outer Banks of the Carolinas. We are likely to see severe beach erosion, dangerous rip currents, and significant coastal flooding during high tide. However, there will be no impacts to the Gulf or the state of Texas from Aaron.
Two more systems are following closely behind Aaron and will likely become topics of interest over the next week. Again, there will be no impacts to the Gulf over the next seven days. We will keep a close eye on these systems in the open Atlantic, though. It’s important to note that there is little skill in forecasting the specific positioning of tropical cyclones beyond seven days, so don’t be swayed by doomsday weather model predictions for systems ten days out.