Fall officially begins today, and with it comes a stormier weather pattern for the Lone Star State. Multiple opportunities for thunderstorms are expected this week, with some storms turning strong to severe. A cool front will also bring at least a temporary break from summer’s heat.
Monday: Morning Storms Fade, Evening Showers Possible
Storms across North Texas this morning will gradually diminish by early afternoon. A few showers or storms may linger into Northeast Texas during peak heating hours. Later today, the Texas Panhandle and West Texas may see a few isolated storms, though the severe risk remains low.
Tuesday Into Wednesday: Higher Severe Weather Potential
The most active period arrives Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes into Texas.
Regions impacted: Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, Ark-La-Tex
Storm threats: Damaging winds over 70 mph, large hail, very heavy rain, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
Tornado threat: Very low, but not zero
Timing: Scattered storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, increasing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
Localized flash flooding will also be possible in areas that experience repeated storms.
Wednesday: Front Moves South
By Wednesday, the cold front shifts into South and Southeast Texas. Storm chances will spread into the Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, Rio Grande Valley, Coastal Bend, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle.
While widespread severe weather isn’t expected, a few storms could still bring gusty winds, hail, and frequent lightning.
Looking Ahead
Rainfall totals: Most areas will see around 0.5” to 1” of rain this week, with locally higher amounts near 2”.
Temperatures:
70s/80s behind the cold front in the Panhandle and North Texas
90s and even triple digits hanging on across South Texas until midweek
Lower humidity statewide by late week
Tropics: Hurricane Gabrielle & More
The Atlantic basin has come alive with activity. Major Hurricane Gabrielle has rapidly intensified southeast of Bermuda, but it poses no direct threat to the U.S. coast. Two additional systems east of the Caribbean may develop in the coming days, with one possibly tracking closer to the Bahamas. No threats to Texas or the Gulf are expected at this time.
Key Takeaways
Monday: Morning storms fade, evening showers possible
Tuesday–Wednesday: Best chance for severe storms statewide
Wednesday Night–Thursday: Storm chances shift south with the cold front
Late Week: Lower humidity, seasonable temperatures return
Stay weather-aware this week. Download the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app for interactive radar, live severe weather coverage, and daily Texas Weather Roundup videos.