Fall weather continues in Texas, and as we wrap up the week, the forecast brings a split personality. Far West Texas will be dealing with showers and storms at times, while the rest of the state settles into warm, dry conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic tropics are heating up with several systems—but none that pose a direct threat to Texas.
Rain Chances Focused in Far West Texas
The best chance of rain this weekend will stay confined to the western quarter of Texas, including El Paso, the Guadalupe Mountains, Trans Pecos, and the Big Bend region. Rain and storms will be most likely today through Saturday. Some localized downpours could create minor flooding, especially in mountainous terrain.
Elsewhere across Texas, expect an increase in cloud cover but little to no rainfall. A rogue light shower can’t be ruled out, but overall, it will be a quiet and dry stretch of weather for most of the state.
Fire Danger for Parts of Texas
The Texas A&M Forest Service highlights moderate to high fire danger for South Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas through the weekend. The remainder of the state faces lower wildfire risk, but outdoor burning is still discouraged.
Tropics Heating Up – No Impact for Texas
The Atlantic basin is active, though there are no threats to the Gulf of Mexico or Texas.
Hurricane Humberto has strengthened into a hurricane and is expected to become a major hurricane over the weekend. Its track keeps it offshore, but it will likely pass west of Bermuda. Dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding are expected along the U.S. East Coast.
Developing system near the Bahamas: This disturbance is likely to become a tropical storm or hurricane within the next few days. Current guidance suggests a landfall in the Carolinas early next week, with risks of storm surge, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flooding rainfall across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Hurricane Gabrielle has moved northeast of the Azores and is not a threat to land.
Looking Ahead
The long-range outlook shows dry conditions for most of Texas through the middle of next week. Precipitation chances will remain confined to Far West Texas, while the rest of the state experiences warm afternoons in the 80s and 90s.
September will end on a quiet and dry note for most Texans, with little change expected heading into the first few days of October.