Welcome to October in Texas, where it still feels like late summer. The first day of the new month is bringing hot temperatures, almost no rain, and a rising wildfire threat across the state. If you were hoping for a cool front, you’ll have to keep waiting.
Dry Skies Across Texas
Today’s high-resolution forecast model shows little to no rain across Texas. A rogue sprinkle in the Panhandle tonight isn’t out of the question, and a few very light showers could pop up near the Piney Woods, Golden Triangle, and the Texas Gulf Coast tomorrow. But for the overwhelming majority of Texans, skies will stay sunny and hot with highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s. South Texas could even push toward triple digits.
Wildfire Danger Increasing
The Texas A&M Forest Service reports moderate to locally high fire danger for the southeastern half of Texas. Areas including the Brazos Valley, Golden Triangle, and South Central Texas are drying out quickly after weeks of above-normal heat and limited rainfall. Faster-moving grass and brush fires are becoming more likely, so please use caution outdoors.
Tropics: Imelda Strikes Bermuda
While the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, the Atlantic basin is still active. Hurricane Imelda is passing over Bermuda tonight, bringing hurricane-force winds and flooding. Along the U.S. East Coast, dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding will continue this week. Thankfully, there are no tropical threats for Texas or the Gulf at this time.
Looking Ahead
High pressure over Texas will dominate into early next week. This “heat dome” is keeping storm systems and cold fronts deflected north, which means we’re stuck with above-average temperatures and dry conditions. A storm system brushing the Panhandle by late weekend could bring a few showers or storms there, but for most of Texas, October will start off hot and quiet.
What to Expect
- Temperatures: Highs in the 80s and 90s; upper 90s across South Texas.
- Rain chances: Near zero for most of Texas, except for isolated sprinkles Panhandle and Gulf Coast.
- Wildfire danger: Moderate to high across East Texas, Brazos Valley, and South Central Texas.
- Tropics: Hurricane Imelda impacting Bermuda; no Gulf threats.
So, October begins much like September ended — hot, dry, and fire-prone. Relief is not likely in the next seven days, though we’ll be watching patterns beyond early next week for potential changes. As always, you can track the latest with our interactive radar or in the Texas Storm Chasers app.