Rain Chances Remain Low for Most Texans
It’s another warm and mostly dry day across the Lone Star State. A few isolated storms may develop in Far West Texas, the Rio Grande Plain, and South Texas, bringing locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning. For everyone else—expect more sunshine, haze, and heat.
Fire Weather Threat Expanding
The Texas A&M Forest Service reports high to very high fire danger for South-Central, Southeast, and East Texas, including the Brazos Valley, Coastal Plains, and Golden Triangle.
Dry grasses and gusty afternoon winds could quickly ignite new fires, so avoid any outdoor burning or spark-prone work until humidity improves.
Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Jerry continues east of the Lesser Antilles and will curve into the open Atlantic. Another weak disturbance near the Gulf is sliding toward Mexico and could send some extra moisture into Deep South Texas, but development remains unlikely.
Elsewhere, a strong nor’easter will impact the U.S. East Coast this weekend—no impact here in Texas.
The Heat Dome Returns
High pressure dominates the state once again, forcing the jet stream north and west of Texas. That keeps most rain chances out of reach and temperatures on the warm side.
Expect afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s, with a few 70s in the higher terrain out west.
This “Ring of Fire” setup will linger through the weekend, sending storms around Texas instead of across it.
Looking Toward Next Week
Forecast models suggest above-average heat for much of the state through at least October 17. Western Texas may see slightly better rain odds as Pacific moisture edges in, but no major cold fronts are expected anytime soon.
The earliest possible cool-down still looks to be around October 20—and even that remains uncertain.
Wrap-Up
If you live in western Texas, you might see some rain this weekend. For the rest of us—it’s heat, dryness, and fire danger on repeat.
Stay weather-aware, stay safe, and as always, you can check local conditions anytime in the free Texas Storm Chasers app.