Flash Drought Conditions Expanding Across Texas
Rain chances are sticking around for a lucky few in Far West and Deep South Texas, but most of the state remains bone dry. In this Thursday edition of the Texas Weather Roundup, Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer breaks down how a flash drought is quickly taking hold across the Lone Star State.
According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 75% of Texas is now classified as abnormally dry or in drought. Moderate drought covers over a quarter of the state, with severe to exceptional drought conditions emerging across the San Antonio metro, Lake Medina region, and Big Bend–Trans-Pecos area.
Wildfire Danger Intensifying
The Texas A&M Forest Service warns that fire danger is high to very high, and even locally extreme, across East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, the Coastal Plains, and parts of the Brazos Valley, including Houston.
Dry vegetation, low humidity, and gusty winds are combining to make outdoor burning extremely risky. Even small sparks could lead to fast-spreading wildfires capable of reaching treetops — what forecasters call “crown fires.”
State agencies have pre-positioned equipment and aircraft to respond quickly, but everyone’s urged to stay alert and avoid unnecessary ignition sources.
Rain Chances: Slim to None for Most
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows limited shower activity today and Friday along the Rio Grande Valley, while heavier rainfall stays confined to New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado.
El Paso and the Far West Texas borderland could see up to an inch of rain this weekend from remnant Pacific moisture, while most of Texas won’t see enough to wet the pavement.
Forecast totals through Tuesday:
El Paso / Borderland: up to 1–1.5 inches
Western Panhandle: up to 0.25 inch
Rio Grande Valley: 0.5–1 inch
Central & East Texas: less than 0.10 inch
The Heat Dome Holds Firm
An upper-level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over Texas, deflecting the jet stream north and west. This “Ring of Fire” setup leaves us under sinking air, clear skies, and temperatures well above seasonal norms.
Expect highs in the 80s and 90s statewide through the weekend, with only minor relief in higher terrain out west. By Sunday, mid-90s return to much of Central and South Texas.
Long-range models from the Climate Prediction Center keep the state hotter and drier than normal through mid-October. The next meaningful cold front? Maybe around October 20, if we’re lucky.
Wrap-Up
Fire danger is climbing fast, drought is spreading, and rain chances remain slim outside of the borderland and deep south. It’s a stubborn pattern, and unfortunately, it looks like Texas will stay in the heat for another week or more.
You can always find your local weather forecast and interactive radar in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app — available for both iOS and Android.