Pattern Change on the Horizon
Texas stays split between rain in the west and fire danger in the east, but a long-awaited pattern shift is coming. In this Monday edition of the Texas Weather Roundup, Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer explains what to expect as the jet stream finally returns to Texas and storm chances increase heading into the weekend.
Showers and isolated storms continue across the Panhandle, West Texas, and the borderland through Tuesday. Most of the rain will be light, but heavier downpours are possible under stronger cells near El Paso. A few small hail and gusty wind reports can’t be ruled out.
Fire Danger Expands Across Texas
The Texas A&M Forest Service continues to note high to very high fire danger across much of the state. Dry fuels, low humidity, and gusty winds are keeping conditions favorable for rapid fire spread.
The Governor’s Office recently extended a wildfire disaster declaration that covers most of Texas. This allows for state and federal resources to be pre-staged in case of large wildfires. Even areas not typically at risk, such as Southeast Texas and the Brazos Valley, are now seeing significant wildfire concerns.
A Shift in the Jet Stream
An upper-level high-pressure system—responsible for weeks of heat and dryness—is set to weaken late this week. By Friday into Sunday, a dip in the jet stream will bring a drier air mass to the west and increased Gulf moisture to the east.
This setup will help trigger thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon and evening, especially in northeast Texas and the Ark-La-Tex region. Some storms could be strong to severe, producing hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain.
Severe Weather Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted northeast Texas for a risk of strong to severe storms Saturday. This includes areas near Clarksville, Texarkana, and Atlanta. The risk could shift or expand farther west depending on how the front develops.
Behind the dryline, gusty west winds and very low humidity will increase wildfire potential for western Texas. Ahead of it, scattered storms may develop into organized clusters as they move east into the Brazos Valley and central Texas late Saturday and early Sunday.
Temperature and Rain Trends
Temperatures remain well above normal through the week, with highs in the 80s and 90s across most of Texas. Western regions will stay a little cooler thanks to clouds and spotty showers, but the heat will rebuild by midweek.
Rain totals through Saturday morning will stay light for most of Texas—less than a quarter inch except in the Panhandle and borderland. By the weekend, rainfall should become more widespread in north and east Texas as the front moves in.
The Climate Prediction Center’s long-range outlook still keeps temperatures above average into mid-October but trends precipitation higher for eastern Texas as the pattern breaks down.
Wrap-Up
Expect a few more days of warmth and dryness before a big change arrives late this week. Rain and thunderstorm chances return by the weekend, bringing a shot at much-needed moisture and possibly the first severe storms of the fall season.
Get your local forecast anytime in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app, available for iOS and Android.