Texas woke up to a chilly Monday morning, but the week ahead brings a steady warm-up and a stretch of quiet weather. While parts of the country brace for a major Arctic outbreak, Texas will dodge the worst of it and instead ride a temperature roller coaster dominated by mild afternoons, patchy morning fog, and very little rainfall.

A Dry Week Ahead

A classic early-winter La Niña pattern is settling in, and that means one thing for Texas: not much in the way of precipitation. Outside of isolated coastal drizzles or patchy fog, the state stays dry through at least the upcoming weekend. Rain chances finally return Saturday and Sunday for the eastern third of the state, but even those look limited and scattered.

For North, Central, West, and most of South Texas, rainfall is simply not on the menu this week.

Fog Returns at Times

Fog will be a recurring theme during the overnight and morning hours, especially across East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Brazos Valley. While widespread dense fog isn’t expected at this time, patchy areas may reduce visibility briefly early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Warming Trend Begins Tuesday

After a cool Monday with highs mainly in the 50s and low 60s, temperatures rebound nicely Tuesday:

• Statewide highs in the 60s and 70s

• Mid to upper 70s in South Texas

• 80s possible in the Rio Grande Plains by midweek

This warming trend continues into Thursday as westerly and northwesterly flow aloft keeps cold air locked to our east.

No Arctic Intrusion for Texas

Even though a strong Arctic outbreak will hammer parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast this week, Texas sits on the warm side of the national weather pattern. Periodic weak fronts may knock temperatures down briefly, but nothing suggests a significant cold blast or winter weather for Texas in the near term.

Weekend Rain Chances

The best chance for any precipitation arrives this weekend, mainly across:

• East Texas

• Southeast Texas

• The Upper Texas Coast

Even then, rainfall looks light and scattered, with most Texans remaining dry.

Wildfire Risk Remains Low

Thanks to recent rainfall and light winds, wildfire danger stays mostly low to moderate statewide. However, dormant grasses will dry quickly as temperatures rise, so this will be something to monitor later in the month.

Summary

Texas kicks off the week cold but quickly shifts into a mild, dry stretch dominated by patchy fog and warming temperatures. No significant storms, fronts, or Arctic air masses are expected for the state through the workweek. Enjoy the quieter weather while it lasts.