Texas is heading toward its most consequential stretch of winter weather so far this season, and confidence continues to increase that late Friday through Sunday will bring a combination of dangerous cold and impactful winter weather to much of the state.
This is not a hype situation, but it is one that deserves attention. The overall setup favors multiple days of freezing temperatures, along with a storm system capable of producing snow, sleet, and freezing rain across large portions of Texas.
The exact details are still coming into focus, but the message is already clear: travel will likely become difficult or impossible in parts of the state, and cold-related impacts could last well into early next week.
The Calm Before the Storm
Between now and Thursday, weather conditions across Texas remain relatively quiet.
A round of rain moves through parts of East and Southeast Texas midweek, providing some much-needed moisture and temporarily reducing fire danger. No severe storms or winter precipitation are expected with this activity.
Temperatures during this period remain mild for most of the state, especially south and east, which may make the abrupt shift later this week feel even more dramatic.
The Pattern Shift: Arctic Air Meets a Southern Storm System
Late Friday, a strong Arctic cold front is expected to push south through Texas. Behind it will be a much colder air mass than anything we’ve seen so far this winter.
At the same time, a storm system developing out of the southern jet stream is forecast to move across Texas. This combination, cold air at the surface with moisture riding overhead, is a classic Texas winter weather setup.
Where temperatures fall below freezing at the surface, rain will turn into sleet, freezing rain, or snow. The exact type depends on subtle temperature differences just a few thousand feet above the ground, which is why precision forecasts are still evolving.
What We’re Watching Region by Region
A high-impact winter storm is expected late this week, with dangerous travel conditions likely across much of North Texas through the weekend.
Texas Panhandle
Confidence is highest here.
The Panhandle is likely to experience a significant snowstorm, potentially lasting from Friday night into Sunday. Snow accumulations could be substantial, and combined with strong winds and very cold temperatures, travel conditions may become dangerous or impossible.
This area could remain below freezing for several days, with temperatures struggling to recover even during daylight hours.
North, West, and Central Texas
This is the primary winter mix zone, where sleet and freezing rain are most likely.
While snow may mix in at times, ice is the bigger concern here. Even light ice accumulation can cause serious travel problems, and heavier freezing rain raises the risk of power outages due to ice-laden trees and power lines.
Locations from the Permian Basin through North Texas, the Big Country, and into parts of Central and East Texas should be preparing for prolonged sub-freezing conditions and potentially hazardous roads.
Hill Country, Brazos Valley, and East Texas
This is one of the more uncertain zones, but also one of the most important.
If surface temperatures drop below freezing while precipitation continues, freezing rain could develop, especially late Friday night into Saturday. These areas will be watched closely, as ice impacts here can escalate quickly.
South Texas and the Coastal Plain
South Texas is more likely to see rain initially, but freezing temperatures may reach farther south than usual by Sunday and Monday mornings.
Even if winter precipitation remains limited, hard freezes are likely, which could impact pipes, sensitive plants, and infrastructure not accustomed to prolonged cold.
The Cold Is A Big Story
Regardless of precipitation type, the cold itself will be impactful.
Many areas of Texas, especially north of Interstate 10, may remain below freezing from Friday night through Monday or Tuesday. In parts of North Texas and the Panhandle, overnight lows could drop into the single digits, with wind chills falling below zero.
Any snow or ice that accumulates will be slow to melt. Even brief daytime melting could refreeze quickly each night, keeping roads icy for several days.
This is not shaping up to be a repeat of February 2021, but it is a multi-day winter event that could stress infrastructure and disrupt daily life.
- A sharp temperature gradient sets up Friday as cold air spreads south into Texas.
- A widespread freeze is expected Saturday morning across much of Texas.
- Cold air remains locked in place Saturday with little daytime warming.
- Another hard freeze is expected Sunday morning across much of Texas.
- Cold temperatures linger Sunday afternoon with only gradual improvement.
- Very cold temperatures may persist into Monday morning across Texas.
What Can Still Change
The biggest remaining questions involve:
- How quickly the cold front moves south
- Where the freezing line sets up Friday night and Saturday
- Whether certain areas see sleet versus freezing rain
Those details will be refined over the next 24 to 48 hours. What is unlikely to change is the presence of very cold air and the potential for winter weather impacts across a large portion of Texas.
What You Should Be Doing Now
This is the time to prepare, not panic.
A simple timeline showing how to prepare for winter weather before it arrives, as colder conditions become more likely across Texas.
Make sure you have:
- A plan to avoid travel this weekend if conditions deteriorate
- Supplies in case power is disrupted
- Protection for pipes, pets, and plants
- Warm clothing and extra blankets
If you live in an area that rarely sees winter weather, take this forecast seriously. Impacts often happen not because conditions are extreme, but because communities aren’t accustomed to them.
The Bottom Line
A significant winter weather event is becoming increasingly likely for Texas this weekend, with snow, ice, and dangerous cold all on the table depending on where you live.
Details will continue to change, but the overall risk is real. We’ll keep refining the forecast, focusing on impacts rather than hype, and making sure you have the information you need to make good decisions.
Stay informed, stay prepared, and don’t wait until Friday to start planning.
More updates are coming.