Arctic Cold and Winter Weather Threat Continue to Take Shape Across Texas

Texas is heading into a much colder and more active stretch of weather heading into the weekend, and while details are still evolving, confidence is growing that many parts of the state will see significant impacts from both cold temperatures and winter precipitation.

This is not a “model panic” situation, and it’s not a repeat of February 2021. But it is shaping up to be a high-impact winter weather event for portions of Texas, especially north of Interstate 10, with travel disruptions and prolonged cold likely for several days.

First: The Cold Is the Biggest Certainty

Regardless of how precipitation details change, the cold air is locked in.

A strong Arctic air mass will surge into Texas late Friday, with temperatures falling rapidly behind the cold front. For much of the state, especially north and west of Interstate 10, temperatures will drop below freezing Friday night and may not recover until Monday or Tuesday.

Some key points:

• The Panhandle, West Texas, North Texas, and Texoma are likely to experience multiple nights in the single digits and teens
• Wind chills in exposed areas could drop below zero, especially Friday night through Sunday morning
• Even parts of Central Texas, the Hill Country, and East Texas will experience hard freezes, not just brief dips below 32°F
• Monday morning may end up being the coldest morning statewide, with nearly all of Texas below freezing

This prolonged cold alone is enough to cause issues with pipes, pets, and people, even without winter precipitation.

Winter Precipitation: A Messy Setup, Not a Simple Snowstorm

Unlike a classic snowstorm, this system is expected to produce multiple precipitation types, depending on location and timing.

The atmosphere will feature:

• Cold air near the surface
• A warm layer of air a few thousand feet above the ground
• Deep moisture moving in from the southwest

That combination creates a mixed winter weather setup, meaning snow, sleet, freezing rain, and cold rain may all occur across different parts of the state, and sometimes within just a few miles of each other.

Where Snow Is Most Likely

The Texas Panhandle remains the most confident snow zone.

Forecast snow and sleet accumulation across Texas through Sunday morning.

Current data supports:

• 6–12 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts possible
• Blowing snow due to gusty north winds
• Near-blizzard conditions at times, especially along and north of I-40

Travel in the Panhandle late Friday through Sunday is likely to be dangerous or impossible.

The Ice Risk Zone: Where Problems Can Escalate

Farther south and east, the concern shifts from snow to ice.

Forecast ice accumulation across Texas from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. Travel disruptions are likely.

Parts of:

• North Texas
• Northeast Texas
• East Texas
• Portions of Central Texas

may experience freezing rain and sleet, especially from Friday night through Saturday night.

Freezing rain is the most concerning type of winter precipitation, because it can:

• Accumulate on roads, bridges, and overpasses
• Stick to trees and power lines
• Lead to power outages due to ice load, not grid failure

Even a thin glaze of ice can make roads treacherous. Quarter-inch ice accumulations or greater raise the risk of tree damage and localized power disruptions.

Right now, confidence is highest that travel will become very difficult across much of North and Central Texas during the weekend, regardless of exact precipitation type.

South Texas: Cold Rain, Then a Freeze

South Texas is expected to stay mainly rain-only during the precipitation phase, but do not overlook the cold.

As the Arctic air pushes farther south:

• Freezing temperatures may reach the Rio Grande Valley by Monday morning
• This will be a hard freeze, not a brief one
• Sensitive plants and exposed pipes will be at risk

Timing: When Conditions Deteriorate

While exact timing can still shift, the general window looks like this:

• Friday afternoon: Rain and snow begin in the north; cold front pushes south
• Friday night – Saturday: Widespread winter precipitation develops across much of Texas
• Saturday night – Sunday morning: Second wave possible, especially farther south and east
• Sunday afternoon: Precipitation ends, but dangerous cold remains
• Monday – Tuesday: Bitter cold mornings, slow recovery, refreezing at night

Even after precipitation ends, ice-covered roads may remain hazardous due to repeated overnight freezes.

What Texans Should Be Doing Now

This is the window to prepare calmly and rationally.

A simple timeline showing how to prepare for winter weather before it arrives, as colder conditions become more likely across Texas.

• Make plans assuming you may not want to travel this weekend
• Prepare homes for multiple nights below freezing
• Check pets, pipes, and outdoor faucets
• Have basic supplies in case roads become impassable or power is disrupted

This is not about panic. It’s about recognizing a legitimate winter weather threat and giving yourself flexibility.

Bottom Line

Texas is heading into a prolonged cold spell, with a real risk of impactful winter weather for a large portion of the state. Snow will dominate in the Panhandle, while ice and sleet pose the bigger concern farther south and east.

Details will continue to evolve, and exact accumulation numbers will change. But the overall message is clear:

Cold is coming. Travel will be difficult in many areas. Preparation matters.

We’ll continue refining the forecast as higher-resolution data comes into range and will update you as conditions become clearer. You can watch our live channel here, and keep up to date with our free mobile app.

Stay informed. Don’t be scared. And don’t ignore this one.