Confidence continues to increase that Texas is heading into a prolonged and potentially high-impact stretch of winter weather beginning late Friday and lasting into early next week. While there are still important details to refine, the overall pattern is becoming clearer: widespread cold, dangerous travel conditions, and a meaningful risk of ice and snow across much of the state.
What has changed since earlier today is the timing, not the threat. New model data arriving this evening has shifted back toward a colder and faster solution, closer to what we were seeing overnight and early this morning. That means colder air arrives sooner, the freezing line pushes farther south, and winter weather impacts expand.
This article walks through what we know, what remains uncertain, and what Texans should realistically prepare for.
A Quick Overview of the Setup
A strong Arctic air mass is plunging south through the Plains while a separate storm system brings moisture out of the Southwest. When those two features interact over Texas, the result is a classic winter weather setup for the state.
The key ingredients are all present:
- Shallow but very cold Arctic air near the surface
- Warmer air aloft creating a mixed precipitation environment
- Multiple rounds of precipitation lasting more than 24 hours
- A prolonged period below freezing after precipitation ends
This is not a brief cold snap, and it is not a one-round event.
Timeline: When Impacts Begin and End
Friday: Cold Air Advances, Impacts Begin in the North
- The Texas Panhandle is expected to be below freezing by Friday morning.
- Freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow may already begin early Friday in far northern areas.
- Much of the state remains warm Friday afternoon, especially south and east, with rain and thunderstorms possible.
Friday Night into Saturday Morning: First Major Round
- Freezing rain, sleet, and snow expand across the Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Texoma, and parts of North Texas.
- Areas farther south, including Central Texas and the Hill Country, remain above freezing initially with rain and thunderstorms.
Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Morning: Highest Impact Period
- The Arctic front surges south, pushing the freezing line into Central Texas and parts of East Texas.
- A second, heavier round of precipitation spreads across much of the state.
- This is when ice accumulations and widespread travel issues become most likely.
- Snow and sleet dominate farther north, while freezing rain becomes a growing concern in North and Northeast Texas.
Sunday Afternoon Onward: Precipitation Ends, Cold Takes Over
- Most precipitation exits by Sunday afternoon.
- Dangerous cold persists through Monday and Tuesday mornings.
- Any melting Sunday afternoon will refreeze quickly after sunset.
Snow and Sleet: Where Accumulations Are Likely
Forecast snow and sleet accumulation across Texas from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning, including two waves of winter weather.
Panhandle and Far West Texas
- Snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches appear increasingly likely.
- Locally higher amounts are possible.
- Blowing snow and near-blizzard conditions may develop due to strong winds.
West Texas, Big Country, Texoma, North Texas
- A mix of sleet and snow, potentially accumulating several inches.
- Sleet creates extremely slick road conditions and is difficult to clear.
- Travel may be impossible at times.
Ice Storm Potential: The Biggest Concern
Forecast ice accumulation across Texas from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning during a two-wave winter storm.
The most concerning aspect of this forecast remains the risk of significant freezing rain, particularly across:
- North Texas
- Northeast Texas
- Parts of East Texas
Ice accumulations of one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch are possible in localized areas. This level of ice is enough to:
- Weigh down trees and large branches
- Damage power lines and utility infrastructure
- Cause extended power outages
- Block roads with fallen debris
Freezing rain is especially dangerous because it adheres efficiently to elevated surfaces, including bridges, overpasses, trees, and power lines. While sleet is still hazardous for travel, freezing rain poses a greater threat to infrastructure.
Cold That Impacts Everyone
Even areas that avoid significant ice or snow will experience dangerously cold temperatures.
Temperature Highlights
- Near-zero or below-zero lows in the Panhandle and Northwest Texas
- Single-digit and teen lows across much of North and Central Texas
- Statewide hard freeze likely Monday morning, including South Texas
- Wind chills below zero in northern regions
- Several areas may remain below freezing for multiple consecutive days
This level of cold increases the risk of:
- Burst pipes
- Power demand strain
- Hypothermia for those without adequate shelter
- Prolonged road icing even after precipitation ends
What Has Changed — and What Hasn’t
What’s changed:
- The cold front is moving faster again.
- Freezing air arrives earlier Saturday.
- Ice risk has shifted slightly north, but remains significant.
What hasn’t changed:
- This is still a high-impact winter event.
- Travel disruptions remain likely.
- Cold will persist well into early next week.
- Some areas may face power outages due to ice.
What Texans Should Do Now
This is the window to prepare calmly and methodically.
- Avoid unnecessary travel from late Friday through Sunday if you’re in the northern half of Texas.
- Prepare for the possibility of power outages, especially in North and Northeast Texas.
- Protect pipes, pets, and plants.
- Ensure you have adequate heat, food, and water for several days.
- Stay informed through trusted, local sources.
This is not a 2021 repeat, but it is a serious winter storm for parts of Texas, and it deserves respect.
We’ll Continue to Refine the Forecast
Specific accumulation totals and exact freezing line placement will continue to evolve over the next 24–48 hours. We will focus on trends and impacts, not hype or raw model graphics.
Updates will continue across:
Stay prepared, not scared. We’ll get through this together.