A rapidly moving arctic cold front is surging into Texas faster than expected, and with it comes a widespread, high-impact winter weather event that will affect much of the state through the weekend and into early next week.
While the exact precipitation type will vary from region to region, confidence is high that dangerous cold, ice, snow, and major travel impacts will occur for a large portion of Texas. In some areas, this event has the potential to cause power outages due to ice accumulation on trees and power lines, along with long-lasting road conditions that may not improve until early next week.
This is not a short-lived system. Once impacts begin, many locations will remain below freezing for several days.
The Cold Front Is Moving Faster Than Expected
The most important update in the forecast is timing.
The arctic front is now running ahead of schedule, pushing freezing temperatures south more quickly than earlier projections. This matters because the faster the cold air arrives, the longer precipitation falls while temperatures are below freezing, increasing the risk of ice accumulation.
By Friday evening, temperatures will already be below freezing across much of:
- The Panhandle
- West Texas
- The Permian Basin
- The Big Country
- North Texas
- Northeast Texas
By early Saturday morning, freezing temperatures are expected to extend into:
- The Hill Country
- Central Texas
- The Brazos Valley
- Parts of East Texas
By Saturday evening and overnight, freezing conditions may reach as far south as San Antonio, the northern Houston metro, and portions of the coastal plains, depending on exact frontal timing.
Two Rounds of Winter Weather
Round One: Friday into Saturday Morning
The first round of precipitation develops Friday afternoon and evening. In northern and western Texas, this will fall into sub-freezing air, leading to:
- Snow in the Panhandle and parts of West Texas
- Freezing rain and sleet farther south and east
Farther south, including South Central and Southeast Texas, this first round will mostly be cold rain and thunderstorms, with temperatures remaining above freezing initially.
Round Two: Saturday Evening into Sunday Morning
The second round is the most concerning.
As colder air deepens and spreads south, precipitation will overspread much of Texas while temperatures are below freezing. This will lead to a widespread mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow, especially across:
- North Texas
- Northeast Texas
- The Brazos Valley
- East Texas
- Central Texas
- The Hill Country
This is when significant icing and dangerous travel conditions are most likely.
Ice Is the Biggest Concern for Many Texans
While snow will be impactful in the Panhandle and parts of West Texas, ice is the primary threat for much of the state.
Freezing rain is especially dangerous because it:
- Accumulates on power lines and tree branches
- Adds tremendous weight to infrastructure
- Can cause tree damage and power outages
- Creates nearly impassable road conditions
Forecast ice accumulation across Texas through Sunday morning.
Current trends support the potential for:
- ¼ to ½ inch of ice in parts of North Texas and Northeast Texas
- Localized higher amounts, especially where freezing rain dominates over sleet
Even small amounts of ice can cause major problems. Just a thin glaze on bridges and overpasses can lead to dangerous driving conditions, and heavier icing can lead to extended power outages due to physical damage, not grid demand.
Snow Totals in the Panhandle and West Texas
Forecast snow accumulation across Texas through Sunday morning.
Snow will be most significant in the Panhandle, where:
- 5 to 10 inches of snow is likely
- Isolated totals could exceed that in spots
- Gusty winds may create blowing snow and near-blizzard conditions at times
Farther south and east, snow may mix with sleet, reducing pure snowfall totals but still creating extremely hazardous travel conditions.
Travel Will Become Dangerous and Stay That Way
Once roads ice over, improvements will be slow. You can track road conditions at DriveTexas.org
Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate rapidly:
- Friday night in the Panhandle, West Texas, and North Texas
- Saturday across much of the northern half of the state
- Saturday night through Sunday for Central and East Texas
In many areas, roads may not significantly improve until Monday, and even then, refreezing at night will remain a concern.
If you are in the northern half of Texas, plan to stay off the roads this weekend.
Bitter Cold Will Affect the Entire State
Even areas that avoid significant winter precipitation will deal with dangerously cold temperatures.
Key points:
- Wind chills below zero are likely in the Panhandle and West Texas
- Widespread hard freezes are expected statewide
- Many locations will remain below freezing for multiple consecutive days
- The coldest temperatures may occur after precipitation ends
Monday morning is shaping up to be the coldest morning of the event, with sub-freezing temperatures statewide, including South Texas.
- Forecast low temperatures across Texas Saturday morning.
- Forecast high temperatures across Texas Saturday afternoon.
- Forecast low temperatures across Texas Sunday morning.
- Forecast high temperatures across Texas Sunday afternoon.
- Forecast low temperatures across Texas Monday morning.
- Forecast high temperatures across Texas Monday afternoon.
- Forecast low temperatures across Texas Tuesday morning.
- Forecast high temperatures across Texas Tuesday afternoon.
What You Should Do Now
- Complete travel plans before conditions deteriorate
- Prepare for potential power outages
- Protect pipes, pets, and plants
- Have multiple layers of clothing and blankets ready
- Avoid unnecessary travel once freezing precipitation begins
This is a high-impact winter weather event, not a typical cold front.
We Will Continue Updating
Forecast details will continue to evolve as new data arrives, especially regarding:
- The exact southern extent of freezing temperatures
- Where freezing rain dominates versus sleet
- Ice accumulation totals
We will continue providing updates on:
Stay weather aware, stay prepared, and avoid unnecessary travel once conditions worsen.
We’ll get through this together.