February is starting off on a much warmer note across Texas, and despite the usual social media noise, there is no Arctic outbreak headed for the state anytime soon.
As we move through the first full week of February, Texas will remain under a generally warm and mostly dry weather pattern. A weak cold front will move south through the state Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing gusty north winds and scattered showers mainly to East and Southeast Texas, but no winter weather and no severe storm threat.
Rain Chances: Tuesday into Wednesday
The best opportunity for rainfall will be across East Texas, the Piney Woods, the Brazos Valley, and the Golden Triangle, including Beaumont and surrounding areas.
Rainfall totals are expected to be modest:
- Most locations: 0.10 to 0.25 inches
- Isolated spots could approach 0.50 inches
- No flooding concerns
- No severe storms expected
The front will move through quickly, limiting how much moisture can pool ahead of it.
Temperatures: Well Above Winter Normals
Much of Texas will experience above-average temperatures through at least February 10.
- South Texas will see highs well into the 70s and even low 80s
- Central Texas and the Hill Country will remain in the 60s and 70s
- North Texas cools slightly midweek behind the front but stays seasonably mild
Overnight lows will dip into the 20s and 30s in the northern half of the state later this week, but nothing close to last week’s cold snap.
No Arctic Outbreak for Texas
Despite viral claims suggesting a major polar vortex event around February 10, current long-range guidance keeps the core of cold air locked well north and east of Texas.
That does not mean winter is over, but it does mean Texas is not in line for a significant Arctic blast in the next 10 days.
Fire Weather Concerns Increasing
With warmer temperatures, drying fuels, and occasional gusty winds, fire danger is beginning to increase again, especially later this week. Many counties are already reinstating burn bans as dormant grasses dry out rapidly.
While large-scale fire danger remains mostly low to moderate, initial attack activity is increasing, particularly from escaped controlled burns.
Looking Ahead
- Mostly dry weather through Saturday
- Possible additional rain chances late Sunday into Monday
- Warm pattern likely continues into mid-February
- Winter is not gone, but it is taking a break
Stay weather aware and keep an eye on changing conditions as Texas transitions deeper into February.
Live radar and updates are available anytime at texasstormchasers.com/radar.