Texas is heading into one of the best stretches of weather we’ve seen since December, with warming temperatures, dry air, and plenty of sunshine setting up across the state. A weak cold front is moving through today, but it will have little long-term impact, quickly giving way to spring-like conditions heading into the weekend.
While the pleasant weather will be welcome after recent cold and winter weather impacts, it does come with an important tradeoff: increasing fire danger, especially across Central, South, and Southeast Texas.
Short-Term Setup: Cold Front, Then a Rapid Warm-Up
A weak cold front pushed south through Texas overnight and early this morning, bringing gusty north winds and slightly cooler temperatures, particularly across the northern half of the state. Aside from a few clouds and isolated light showers in parts of North Texas and Texoma, this front is largely dry.
By Thursday and Friday, winds will shift back out of the south, allowing temperatures to rebound quickly. Highs will climb into the 60s and 70s statewide, with some locations reaching the upper 70s to low 80s by Saturday and Sunday.
This warm-up will be accompanied by very low humidity, setting the stage for elevated fire weather concerns.
Fire Danger Increasing Across Texas
Despite recent rain and winter weather, grass fuels have dried rapidly. Dormant winter grasses ignite easily once surface moisture is gone, and that process has already occurred across much of Texas.
With warm temperatures, dry air, and periodic gusty winds expected through the weekend, fire danger will increase, especially in:
- South Central Texas
- The Coastal Bend
- The Coastal Plains
- Portions of Central and Southeast Texas
Several counties have already reinstated burn bans, and additional restrictions may follow if conditions worsen. Outdoor burning, welding, dragging trailer chains, and equipment that can spark should be avoided.
Weekend Forecast: Near-Perfect Weather, With Caution
Friday through Sunday looks dry and sunny statewide, with no winter weather or severe storms expected. Afternoon temperatures will feel more like late March than early February, making this an excellent weekend for outdoor activities — provided fire safety is taken seriously.
Overnight temperatures will remain cool, especially in North and West Texas, thanks to dry air allowing for strong radiational cooling. Expect cool mornings and warm afternoons, with temperature swings of 30–40 degrees possible.
Looking Ahead: Rain Chances Return Next Week
The next meaningful chance of rain appears early next week, likely Monday into Tuesday, as the upper-level pattern becomes more active. At this time, any precipitation looks to be in the form of rain, with no winter weather expected.
Longer-range guidance continues to support above-average temperatures across Texas through at least mid-February, pushing back any serious cold weather threats for now.
Bottom Line
Texas is entering a warm, dry, and mostly quiet stretch of weather, highlighted by one of the nicest weekends we’ve seen in weeks. Just remember: beautiful weather does not mean low risk. Fire danger will be increasing, and caution is advised statewide.
We’ll continue tracking conditions and provide updates across our website, YouTube channel, and free mobile app.