A new round of active weather is set to return to Texas over the next couple of days, with severe thunderstorms possible across a large part of the state Tuesday and Wednesday.
In Monday’s edition of the Texas Weather Roundup, Texas Storm Chasers owner David Reimer said today’s storm threat should remain fairly limited, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon along the Texas-Louisiana and Texas-Arkansas borders. A few of those storms could produce hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning, mainly across East Texas and Southeast Texas.
The more significant severe weather setup is expected to arrive Tuesday and continue into Wednesday.
Tuesday expected to bring the main severe weather risk
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined parts of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, the Concho Valley, the Hill Country, the Edwards Plateau, Central Texas, North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas for severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday.
Storms are expected to develop across western parts of the state Tuesday afternoon before moving east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Depending on how storms evolve, hazards could include:
Large hail, possibly up to baseball size
Damaging straight-line winds of 60 to 80 mph
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
A few tornadoes
Severe storm outlook for Tuesday, March 10, 2026, showing a corridor of severe weather potential from West Texas through North Texas into Texoma and Northeast Texas.
One of the key forecast questions is how quickly storms transition from more isolated, discrete thunderstorms into a line. If storms remain more isolated for a longer period Tuesday afternoon and evening, the threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes would likely increase. If storms quickly organize into a squall line, the main threat would shift more toward damaging winds, some hail, and a couple of brief spin-up tornadoes.
There is also the possibility that a few storms could develop well ahead of the main line Tuesday afternoon across parts of North Texas and Northeast Texas. If that happens, those storms could also become strong to severe with hail and damaging wind gusts.
Wednesday storm threat shifts into East Texas
By Wednesday, the severe weather threat is expected to shift east into the eastern quarter of Texas as the line of storms continues moving toward the Louisiana and Arkansas state lines.
Storm intensity may increase again during the afternoon hours Wednesday as storms move into East Texas and Southeast Texas. The primary hazards on Wednesday look to be:
Damaging wind gusts over 60 mph
Small to marginally severe hail
Frequent lightning
A brief spin-up tornado or two
Storms should gradually exit Texas by Wednesday evening, bringing an end to this short active stretch.
Severe storm outlook for Wednesday, March 11, 2026, highlighting a risk for strong storms across East Texas and Southeast Texas.
A few storms possible Monday in East and Southeast Texas
Before the more organized severe weather threat arrives, isolated storms may develop Monday afternoon across parts of East Texas and Southeast Texas.
While widespread severe weather is not expected today, a few storms could still produce small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Anyone with outdoor plans in those areas should keep an eye on the radar and have a way to receive warnings.
Fire weather concerns continue in West Texas and the Panhandle
It will not just be storms Texans need to watch this week.
Very high to extreme fire danger is expected across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas on Monday, with elevated fire weather concerns continuing Tuesday. By Wednesday, moderate to high fire danger is expected across the western third of Texas and into parts of South Texas.
That means strong winds, dry vegetation, and low humidity will continue to create conditions favorable for fast-moving wildfires, especially in areas that miss out on rainfall.
Texas fire danger forecast for Monday through Wednesday, March 9–11, 2026. Highest fire danger is expected across the Texas Panhandle today before conditions improve statewide.
Warmer and quieter weather later this week
The good news is that once the Tuesday and Wednesday storm system moves out, Texas is expected to enter a less active stretch of weather during the second half of the week and into the weekend.
Drier conditions and warmer temperatures are expected statewide, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and even lower 90s in parts of Texas by late week.
For now, the main message is simple: enjoy the quieter weather while it lasts Monday, because storm chances and severe weather potential will increase again Tuesday and Wednesday.
Residents across Texas should stay weather aware, especially those in North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas, where strong to severe storms may develop.
You can track the latest forecasts, radar, and warning information using the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app and by following Texas Storm Chasers across social media platforms and on YouTube.