Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across several regions of Texas later today and continue into tonight, with additional storms possible Wednesday across eastern parts of the state.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a broad area of severe weather potential that includes Northwest Texas, the Big Country, the Concho Valley, the Edwards Plateau, the Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas.
Storms are expected to develop along a dryline this afternoon and move east across the state through the evening hours.
Early Storms Possible This Afternoon
Some thunderstorms may begin developing around midday into the early afternoon across Central Texas and North Texas, moving northeast toward Northeast Texas.
These early storms could produce hail and gusty winds, though the tornado risk with these storms currently appears low. Forecasters will continue monitoring conditions in case storms become more intense than currently expected.
Main Severe Weather Development Later Today
The main round of thunderstorms is expected to begin developing by mid-afternoon, around 3 PM, along a dryline stretching from near Del Rio and Eagle Pass northward through the eastern Permian Basin, the Concho Valley, the Big Country, and Northwest Texas.
These storms are expected to move east-northeast through the afternoon and evening, impacting parts of Central Texas, North Texas, the Hill Country, Texoma, and Northeast Texas.
Storms that form along the dryline may initially develop as discrete supercells, which could produce the most intense severe weather.
Severe storms are expected across parts of West and North Texas today with threats including large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Large to Giant Hail Possible
The strongest storms this afternoon and evening could produce very large hail, potentially reaching three to four inches in diameter, roughly the size of a softball.
Additional severe weather hazards may include:
Damaging straight-line winds of 60 to 70 mph, with isolated gusts approaching 80 mph
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
Locally heavy rainfall
A few tornadoes
While the tornado threat currently appears limited, it may increase somewhat during the late afternoon and evening hours, particularly across parts of the Hill Country and the Concho Valley, as wind shear increases.
Storms May Form a Line Tonight
As storms continue through the evening, they may organize into a line of thunderstorms moving east across Texas.
This line could move through North Texas, Central Texas, and Texoma this evening and continue toward Northeast Texas overnight.
Within this line of storms, the primary threat may shift toward damaging wind gusts, though embedded tornadoes and hail remain possible.
All storms will also be capable of producing dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning.
Heavy Rainfall Possible in Some Areas
Some locations could receive a few inches of rainfall, particularly across portions of the Concho Valley, the Big Country, North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas.
However, rainfall totals will vary widely depending on where storms track. While localized flooding could occur, many areas may receive little rainfall.
Severe Weather Risk Continues Wednesday
Storms that develop today may continue into Wednesday morning across parts of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley.
Later Wednesday afternoon, thunderstorms could re-intensify across East Texas, Northeast Texas, and Southeast Texas, including the Golden Triangle region.
A lower severe storm risk continues Wednesday across East Texas as storms move eastward.
These storms could again produce hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and a low tornado risk.
Some models suggest thunderstorms could continue across eastern Texas into early Thursday morning.
High-resolution model guidance suggests storms developing across Central Texas and spreading east through the afternoon.
Fire Danger West of the Dryline
While storms develop farther east, areas west of the dryline will experience very dry and windy conditions.
Very high to extreme fire danger is expected across the Texas Panhandle and parts of West Texas, where any fires that start could spread rapidly.
Elevated fire weather conditions may continue into Wednesday and Thursday across parts of the Panhandle, West Texas, the Guadalupe Mountains, and Deep South Texas.
Fire danger remains elevated across the Texas Panhandle today before easing later this week.
Stay Weather Aware
Residents in areas expecting storms today should remain weather aware and monitor conditions through the afternoon and evening.
Make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings, including smartphone alerts and weather apps.
Texas Storm Chasers is expected to provide live severe weather coverage later this afternoon and evening as storms develop.
You can also monitor storms using the Texas Storm Chasers Interactive Radar: