A windy stretch of weather is setting up across Texas this weekend, with a strong cold front expected to sweep south through the state on Sunday. While most areas will remain dry, some locations in East and Northeast Texas could see a brief line of fast-moving thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
Here is the latest statewide forecast as of Thursday, March 12, 2026.
Quiet and Pleasant Weather Through Friday
Texas is enjoying cooler and much drier air today following yesterday’s gusty north winds. Skies are clear statewide and temperatures will remain comfortable, with afternoon highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.
By Friday, winds will shift back around to the south as the next weather system approaches from the western United States. Despite the return of southerly flow, conditions will remain dry across the state.
High temperatures Friday will climb back into the mid-70s to mid-80s, with some locations in West Texas approaching 90 degrees.
Increasing Fire Danger Across Western Texas
Dry air, warm temperatures, and strengthening winds will lead to elevated wildfire risk across several parts of the state.
According to the Texas A&M Forest Service:
Very high fire danger is expected Thursday in the Rio Grande Valley and across parts of the Texas Panhandle.
High fire danger will continue across West Texas, the Permian Basin, the Trans Pecos, and Big Bend.
By Saturday, very high to near-extreme fire danger could develop across the western third of Texas.
Recent rainfall and early spring green-up will help limit wildfire risk in some areas, but locations that remain dry could see rapidly spreading fires if ignitions occur.
Very Warm Weekend Ahead
Temperatures will continue warming through the weekend.
Saturday will bring upper 70s and 80s across much of Texas, with upper 80s to mid-90s across western parts of the state.
By Sunday morning, gusty south winds will keep temperatures mild overnight, with lows mainly in the 60s across central and eastern Texas.
Sunday afternoon temperatures will depend heavily on the timing of the approaching cold front, but much of South Texas could reach the mid-90s to near 100 degrees before the front arrives.
Powerful Cold Front Arrives Sunday
A strong upper-level storm system moving across the Plains will drive a powerful cold front south through Texas on Sunday.
This system will bring very strong winds across the state.
Forecast models suggest:
North wind gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph behind the cold front.
Some areas could see even stronger gusts depending on how efficiently winds aloft mix down to the surface.
This setup has the potential to produce a statewide high wind event Sunday into Monday, particularly across North and West Texas.
Residents should prepare for the possibility of difficult travel, blowing dust in western areas, and elevated fire weather conditions.
Storms Possible in East and Northeast Texas
Most of Texas will remain dry as the cold front moves through, but East Texas and Northeast Texas could see a quick line of storms Sunday afternoon and evening.
These storms would likely be fast-moving and short-lived.
A severe storm outlook highlights parts of East Texas where thunderstorms could become severe Sunday afternoon and evening.
The main concerns include:
Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph
Frequent lightning
Brief heavy rainfall
Rain totals generally under one-quarter inch
Because the storms will be moving quickly, they are not expected to produce widespread rainfall.
Sharp Cooldown by Monday
Much cooler air will arrive behind the front Sunday night.
By Monday morning, temperatures could drop dramatically across parts of the state.
Forecast lows include:
Upper teens to lower 20s across the Texas Panhandle
20s and 30s across North Texas and the South Plains
30s to lower 40s across Central Texas
Daytime highs Monday will remain cool with temperatures mainly in the 50s across the northern half of Texas and 60s to low 70s farther south.
This late-season chill is a reminder that Texas is not fully done with cold snaps yet, especially for those considering early spring planting.
Warmer Pattern Returns Next Week
After the brief cooldown Sunday night and Monday, temperatures are expected to climb quickly again.
Long-range forecasts suggest well above-average temperatures returning across much of Texas from March 17 through March 21.
Unfortunately, rainfall chances remain limited, and much of the state may stay mostly dry into the third week of March.
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