Texas is about to go through a dramatic weather swing this week, with a late-season cold shot tonight followed by a rapid warm-up that could send temperatures into the 90s and even near 100 degrees by Saturday in parts of the state. At the same time, rain chances remain very limited, and wildfire danger is expected to increase as dry air and gusty winds return.
Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the complete statewide forecast, then keep reading for the written breakdown.
Texas starts the week on the cool side after strong winds moved through overnight into Monday morning. While winds are easing compared to the worst of the recent gusts, much cooler air has settled into the state, setting the stage for another cold night across a large part of Texas.
Frost and Light Freeze Expected Tonight
A frost and light freeze are expected tonight across much of the northern two-thirds of Texas. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and low 30s in many locations, which could damage sensitive plants if they are left unprotected.
Lows by Tuesday morning are expected to fall to around 28 to 30 degrees in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, near 28 degrees in Texarkana, around 30 degrees in Amarillo, near 29 degrees in Lubbock, and close to 31 degrees in Austin. Waco is also expected to fall to around 30 degrees. Even farther south, areas around Houston and San Antonio may drop into the middle 30s.
This is another good reminder that March in Texas can still bring cold snaps, even after stretches of warm weather. Anyone with sensitive plants should plan to protect them tonight.
Warm-Up Begins Quickly on Tuesday
The chill will not last long. Southerly winds return on Tuesday, and temperatures will begin climbing right away. Much of Texas should warm back into the 60s and 70s Tuesday afternoon, with some warmer spots out in the Trans-Pecos.
By Wednesday, the combination of very dry air and abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to rise quickly during the day. West Texas is expected to push into the mid and upper 80s, while much of East Texas climbs into the 70s.
This pattern will create very large day-to-night temperature swings, with chilly mornings followed by unusually warm afternoons.
Summer-Like Heat Builds by Late Week
The bigger story arrives later this week as a strong ridge of high pressure sets up over the region. That pattern will support a much hotter and drier stretch of weather across Texas.
By Thursday, highs are expected to reach the 90s across parts of West Texas, Northwest Texas, and the Big Country. Cities such as Lubbock, Childress, Wichita Falls, and El Paso could all be well into summer-like temperatures, while DFW, Austin, and San Antonio also trend much warmer.
By Friday, parts of Texas may enter record high territory. Widespread 90s are expected along and west of Interstate 35, including North Texas, Central Texas, and much of West Texas. Midland, Odessa, Abilene, Laredo, and Del Rio could all be solidly in the middle 90s.
Saturday may be even hotter. Current projections show some communities in western Texas approaching 100 degrees, including Childress, with upper 90s also possible in Abilene, Midland, and Odessa. Even DFW may rise into the low to mid 90s, which is much closer to average July weather than mid-March.
Some forecast guidance suggests these temperatures may still be conservative, meaning even hotter highs are possible if this pattern strengthens further.
Fire Danger Will Increase This Week
As the heat builds and the air stays dry, wildfire danger will become a growing concern across Texas.
Fire danger remains elevated because of several factors coming together at once: very dry air, limited rainfall, dormant grasses caused by freezing temperatures, and increasing south winds later this week. Some areas already saw beneficial rainfall last week and over the weekend, but that moisture will not last long under several days of dry and increasingly hot weather.
Fire danger is expected to range from very high to extreme in parts of Texas early in the week, with moderate to very high fire danger expanding statewide through midweek. Conditions may worsen further by Friday and Saturday as temperatures soar.
Rain Chances Remain Very Low
Unfortunately, there is little indication of meaningful rainfall over the next five to seven days.
The upper-level pattern favors continued dry air over Texas, and there are no strong storm systems currently showing up that would support widespread rain. That means the state is likely to stay dry through the rest of the workweek and into the weekend.
For areas that need rainfall badly, this is not a helpful setup. It also means fire weather concerns will remain front and center as Texas moves from a freeze to near-summer heat in only a few days.
Bottom Line
Texas is heading into a classic stretch of weather whiplash. Frost and light freeze conditions tonight will give way to a fast warm-up, followed by widespread 90s and possible near-100-degree heat by Saturday in parts of the state.
If you have sensitive plants, protect them tonight. After that, attention turns quickly to building heat, growing wildfire danger, and an unfortunately dry forecast heading into the weekend.
You can get your local forecast, interactive radar, and more in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.