Texas is entering a highly unusual and potentially historic weather pattern this week, with temperatures forecast to climb into the 90s and near 100 degrees by the weekend.
This rapid warm-up follows recent freezing temperatures across parts of the state and is being driven by a strong upper-level ridge (heat dome) building over the southern United States.
Watch: Full Texas Weather Roundup Forecast
Rapid Warm-Up Across Texas This Week
Temperatures will steadily increase through midweek before peaking this weekend.
Tuesday (March 17)
Highs generally in the 60s to low 70s statewide
Warmer conditions across West Texas into the mid to upper 70s
Wednesday (March 18)
Morning lows: upper 30s to mid 40s
Afternoon highs: 70s east, 80s central and west
Thursday (March 19)
Morning lows: 40s to low 50s
Highs: upper 80s to mid 90s statewide
Peak Heat This Weekend: Widespread 90s, Some Near 100
Friday (March 20)
Morning lows: 40s and 50s
Highs: 90s across most of Texas
Saturday (March 21)
Morning lows: 50s to low 60s
Highs:
Upper 90s to near 100 degrees in West and Central Texas
90s expanding across much of the state
Potential for Record-Breaking March Temperatures
Some cities could challenge or exceed their all-time highest March temperatures, including:
Abilene
San Angelo
Del Rio
Parts of the Permian Basin
Many of these records date back more than 100 years, highlighting how unusual this event is for mid to late March.
No Rain Expected Across Texas
Forecast models show no meaningful rainfall for at least the next 7 days, with dry conditions likely persisting into late March.
Rain chances: near zero statewide
Slight potential late next week: limited mainly to South Texas
This is a departure from typical March patterns, which often bring more frequent rainfall.
Fire Danger Increasing Across Texas
Fire weather conditions are expected to worsen due to:
Increasing temperatures
Low humidity
Dry vegetation following recent freezes
Areas most at risk include:
West Texas
Central Texas
Hill Country
Localized very high to extreme fire danger will be possible, especially later this week into the weekend.
Why This Pattern Is Unusual for March
A strong ridge of high pressure—commonly referred to as a heat dome—is developing over the Southwest and Texas.
This pattern:
Suppresses cloud formation
Limits storm systems
Promotes strong daytime heating
These conditions are more typical of mid-summer, not early spring.
Safety Considerations
The rapid shift from cool to very hot conditions can increase risk for:
Heat-related illness
Dehydration
Wildfire starts and spread
Residents should:
Stay hydrated
Limit prolonged outdoor exposure during peak heat
Avoid activities that could spark fires
Extended Outlook for Texas
Above-average temperatures continue into next week
Limited rainfall signals remain
Fire weather concerns likely persist
Bottom Line
Texas is facing a potentially historic March heat wave, with:
Temperatures approaching 100 degrees
Several locations at risk of breaking long-standing records
No meaningful rainfall in the near-term
Increasing wildfire risk
This is a significant departure from typical March weather and will have impacts across much of the state.