Texas weather is settling back into a pretty classic late-April setup.
We are going to be dealing with hot temperatures, increasing humidity, daily storm chances in at least parts of the state, and a few days that could bring isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms as we head into the weekend. On top of that, extreme fire danger is sticking around in the Panhandle and parts of West Texas. In other words, it is one of those Texas weather patterns where somebody is dealing with rain, somebody is dealing with hail, and somebody else is wondering why it feels like summer showed up three months early.
A few storms fired today, but tonight turns quieter
We already saw showers and thunderstorms pop up today across Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, the Piney Woods of East Texas, and even up toward Interstate 20 from Longview to Marshall and Waskom. Those storms brought locally heavy downpours and lightning, more like the kind of scattered warm-season activity Texas tends to deal with later in the spring and summer.
As we go deeper into tonight, storm coverage should decrease fairly quickly after about 9 PM. Most of Texas will quiet down overnight, although the eastern two-thirds of the state will likely deal with another round of low clouds, fog, and mist by Thursday morning. Some of that fog could be dense in spots, so it may not be the prettiest start to the day.
Thursday looks mostly quiet, but a few isolated severe storms are possible
Thursday is one of those days where most people are probably not going to see a storm at all.
That said, if one or two storms can get going east of the dryline from western Texoma into western North Texas, the Big Country, and possibly down toward parts of the Edwards Plateau, those storms could turn severe fairly quickly. The main concerns would be large hail and strong winds, with a very low tornado risk. Right now, the better chance for more organized activity still looks likely to stay north of the Red River in Oklahoma and Kansas, but Texas cannot completely be left out.
So Thursday is not shaping up like a big widespread severe weather day in Texas, but it does have the potential for one of those isolated, high-end storms that can make a mess wherever it happens to go.
Friday and Saturday bring a more notable severe weather risk to North Texas and nearby areas
The weather pattern turns a little more active Friday and Saturday.
For Friday afternoon and evening, the better severe weather concern appears to be across North Texas and Northeast Texas, where scattered severe storms may develop. We will also have to watch for storms trying to move southeast out of Oklahoma Friday night. If storms do get going, the main threats would be large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Saturday looks like another day with at least scattered severe storm potential in North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, Northwest Texas, and nearby areas. Again, the primary concerns would be large hail and damaging winds, with a tornado or two possible depending on how the setup evolves.
This is still several days out, so the exact placement of the highest risk corridor will almost certainly move around some. But the overall message is pretty straightforward: the weekend is looking more active again across the northern half of Texas.
Sunday may need especially close attention
Sunday is still far enough out that details are going to change, but it is a day worth watching.
Right now, the atmosphere looks like it could have a stronger set of ingredients in place across parts of North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas. The wildcard is whether a cap or lid on the atmosphere keeps storm development more limited, or whether storms are able to break through and take advantage of the environment. If they do, some of those storms could get rowdy in a hurry.
That does not mean Sunday is guaranteed to be the biggest severe weather day. It does mean it is the kind of forecast day that deserves extra attention as we get closer.
The good news, if there is any, is that Texas has been relatively fortunate so far this spring when it comes to tornado activity. We have had a few issues, but the Upper Midwest and Plains have taken a much harder beating overall. Still, it is late April, and that is not something anyone should get too comfortable with.
Extreme fire danger continues in the Panhandle and West Texas
While parts of the state watch storm chances, the Panhandle and West Texas remain stuck with another problem entirely.
Extreme fire danger is expected Thursday and Friday across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and the Guadalupe Mountains, with high fire danger extending into the Borderland. It does not take much in that kind of setup for a fire to get going and spread quickly. So while the eastern half of Texas deals with humidity, fog, and thunderstorm chances, western sections of the state will still be dealing with a much drier and more dangerous fire-weather setup.
That split-screen spring pattern is about as Texas as it gets.
It is also going to get hotter and more humid
If you are tired of the humidity already, well, that is unfortunate, because it is not going anywhere.
Overnight lows through the end of the week will stay in the 60s to low 70s across much of the eastern half to southeastern two-thirds of Texas, with more low clouds, mist, and fog likely at times. West of the dryline, mornings will stay cooler and drier, especially across the Panhandle and higher terrain of West Texas.
Afternoon highs will climb well into the 80s and 90s for much of the state by Thursday through the weekend. North and West Texas will see some of the hottest readings, but even Central Texas, South Texas, and the Gulf Coast will be dealing with that sticky, increasingly tropical feel by Saturday and Sunday morning. Highs by Sunday may approach the upper 90s in parts of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and South Texas, while lows along the Gulf Coast and Deep South Texas stay firmly in the summer-like range.
So yes, it is going to feel more and more like late spring trying to shove the door open for summer.
Next week may stay active too
This does not look like a one-and-done storm pattern.
Forecast guidance suggests Texas may continue dealing with at least daily isolated storm chances in some part of the state over the next seven to ten days, with some days potentially featuring more organized activity than others. That does not mean everybody gets storms every day. It means the pattern overall stays unsettled enough that we are going to have to keep watching it.
And honestly, that is about what you would expect in late April.
Bottom line
Texas is heading into a hotter, more humid, and more unsettled pattern.
Thursday may bring a couple isolated severe storms near the dryline, Friday and Saturday look more active for parts of North Texas and nearby regions, and Sunday is a day that may need especially close attention if storms are able to get going. At the same time, extreme fire danger continues in the Panhandle and West Texas, and summer-like humidity is settling back in across much of the state.
So for now, enjoy the quiet if you have it, keep an eye on the sky if you live in the northern half of Texas, and if you are out west, do not do anything reckless that could start a fire.