Texas weather over the next several days is going to be one of those classic spring balancing acts.
We are not looking at a setup where everybody in the state is dealing with storms every day. In fact, most Texans are probably going to stay dry on any given day. The problem is that if storms do manage to fire, they are going to have a pretty good chance of becoming severe in a hurry. At the same time, parts of West Texas and the Panhandle will keep dealing with very high to extreme fire danger, and temperatures are only going to keep climbing into the weekend.
So while this is not a widespread, high-end severe weather outbreak setup for Texas, it is still an active and very Texas sort of forecast.
Thursday brings a low but non-zero severe weather risk
The first day we are watching is Thursday afternoon and evening.
The severe weather risk is isolated and mostly focused on parts of Texoma and Northwest Texas, generally from around Quanah down toward Mineral Wells and east toward Fort Worth, Gainesville, and Sherman. The higher-end storm risk looks more likely to stay north of the Red River in Oklahoma and Kansas, but Texas is close enough to the edge of that setup that we still have to watch.
The big question is whether the cap can break.
There is a lid on the atmosphere, and if that holds, then most of Texas gets through the day without much of anything happening. If one or two storms can break through that cap, though, they would have a good chance of becoming severe quickly, with very large hail, damaging winds, and maybe a tornado.
This is one of those setups that usually ends up being quiet for most people, but if you happen to be under the one storm that does form, it can still cause problems.
Friday’s severe risk covers more of Texas
Friday is similar in some ways, but the conditional risk expands across a much bigger part of the state.
Areas from Northwest Texas and North Texas into the Big Country, the eastern Concho Valley, Hill Country, Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas may all have to watch for isolated severe storms if the atmosphere is able to break through the cap. There is also a better chance of storms trying to move into Northeast Texas Friday evening from Oklahoma.
Again, this is not a forecast where everybody is going to see storms. More likely than not, a lot of folks will stay dry. But any storm that does get going could produce very large hail, localized damaging winds, and possibly a tornado.
That is the theme of this whole forecast: low coverage, but potentially high impact where storms manage to develop.
Saturday and Sunday keep North Texas and nearby areas in play
The same general story continues into the weekend.
Saturday brings another day with isolated severe storm chances in North Texas, Northwest Texas, and possibly Northeast Texas later in the evening as storms try to move in from the north. Large hail, strong winds, and a low tornado risk would again be the main concerns.
Sunday keeps a similar setup in place along the Red River, Texoma, and parts of North Texas. The higher-end risk still looks more likely to stay north of Texas, but if storms can get going on the Texas side of the state line, they could become severe in a hurry. That all depends on how far south the dryline can unzip and whether storms are able to overcome the cap.
So again, most people are probably not going to see severe weather this weekend. But the places that do get a storm could get a rough one.
Fire danger remains high to extreme in West Texas and the Panhandle
While the eastern half of Texas watches storm chances, the western side of the state is dealing with a different problem entirely.
Very high to extreme wildfire danger continues across the Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and the Guadalupe Mountains through at least Saturday, with high fire danger out into the Borderland as well. Hot temperatures, dry air west of the dryline, and gusty winds will keep conditions favorable for fast-moving wildfires.
That means Texas is once again split between thunderstorm concerns on one side of the state and fire weather concerns on the other.
Unfortunately, that is not unusual this time of year.
Heat and humidity are also ramping up
If the storm chances and fire danger were not enough, Texas is also getting hotter.
Temperatures west of the dryline are already pushing well into the 90s, and much of the rest of the state will spend the next several days in the 80s and 90s as humidity stays high east of the dryline. Overnight lows are not cooling off much either, especially across the eastern half and southeastern half of the state, where muggy nights in the upper 60s and 70s are becoming the norm again.
By the weekend and early next week, parts of South Texas and Northwest Texas may be pushing dangerously close to 100 degrees, while much of the rest of the state stays very warm and sticky. That includes places like San Antonio, Austin, Houston, DFW, and much of the Rio Grande Valley.
So if it has started feeling more like late spring trying to bully its way into summer, that is because it is.
Next week may stay active too
This pattern does not look like it shuts down anytime soon.
Forecast guidance continues to suggest at least some storm chances most days next week in parts of Texas, with occasional severe weather risk likely to continue as little upper-level disturbances keep moving through the southern Plains. That does not mean every day will be a big storm day. It means we are staying in a setup where at least some part of Texas could be dealing with conditional storm chances on a regular basis.
And when you are in late April, that is not exactly shocking.
Bottom line
Texas stays hot, humid, and active through the weekend.
Most of the state will stay dry on any given day, but isolated severe storm chances will continue Thursday through Sunday, especially across North Texas, Texoma, Northwest Texas, and nearby regions. If storms form, they could produce very large hail, damaging winds, and maybe a tornado. Meanwhile, very high to extreme fire danger remains in place across the Panhandle and West Texas, and temperatures keep climbing toward summer-like levels.
So the message here is pretty simple: most folks are not going to be dealing with big, bad, very mad storms over the next few days, but enough people could that it still deserves close attention.