We have another active late-April setup on our hands, and today’s main concern is pretty straightforward: Northeast Texas, East Texas, and the ArkLaTex need to keep an eye on the sky this evening.
The highest severe weather risk in Texas today will be from eastern North Texas into Northeast Texas and the Piney Woods. That includes areas generally from Sherman southeast toward Canton, Tyler, Waskom, and up toward Texarkana. Severe storms may develop or move south out of Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening, with the risk continuing into the nighttime hours.
Severe storms may become rowdy this evening
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex for scattered to several severe thunderstorms this evening. The main threats will be very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a low but non-zero tornado risk.
The strongest storms could produce hail up to around tennis ball size, wind gusts over 70 mph, and perhaps a tornado. This does not look like a major tornado outbreak setup for Texas, but the tornado risk is not zero, especially where storms can interact with boundaries left over from earlier thunderstorm activity.
Friday’s severe storm outlook shows the greatest severe weather concern from North Texas into Northeast Texas and East Texas, where large hail and damaging winds are possible.
The outflow boundary matters today
One of the bigger details we are watching today is an outflow boundary moving south from storms in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri.
That boundary is basically a small-scale temperature and wind shift left behind by earlier storms. Where it ends up this afternoon could help focus new thunderstorm development. It could also locally increase the severe weather risk, including a bit of a tornado risk, depending on how storms interact with it.
That is the kind of feature weather models often struggle to pin down perfectly several hours in advance. So today is not just about looking at one model run and calling it good. We will be watching real-time satellite, radar, surface observations, and where that boundary sets up.
Farther west, the risk is more conditional
Farther west, we cannot rule out an isolated severe storm from North Texas south into Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country.
This is more of a conditional setup. The cap, or lid on the atmosphere, may keep most areas dry. But if one or two storms can break through that cap, they could become severe quickly. That would bring a threat of very large hail, localized damaging winds, heavy rain, and perhaps a tornado.
So for places near the I-35 corridor, this is not a guarantee that storms develop. It is more of a “most folks may get nothing, but one storm would be a problem if it forms” type of setup.
Tornado risk is low, but not zero
The tornado risk today is not high, but it is something we will be watching closely in Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex.
The better tornado concern will likely depend on the exact location of the outflow boundary and whether storms can remain organized as they move south into Texas. Again, this is not a day where we expect a bunch of tornadoes across Texas. But in late April, with boundaries around and severe storms possible, you do not ignore the risk either.
Friday’s tornado outlook keeps the threat on the lower end, but not zero, from North Texas into East Texas.
More storm chances continue Saturday and Sunday
Unfortunately, today is not the only day we are watching.
Additional storm chances continue Saturday and Sunday, especially across North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, and near the Red River. The exact risk areas will probably change some depending on how today’s storms behave. Leftover boundaries from one day can affect where storms develop the next day, and that is just part of spring forecasting in Texas.
Saturday may bring another round of isolated to scattered severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and perhaps a tornado.
Saturday’s severe storm outlook keeps a low-end risk in place across a broad part of Texas, with the greatest hail concern near the Ark-La-Tex region.
Sunday looks similar, with the higher severe weather risk probably staying closer to or north of the Red River. That said, North Texas, Texoma, and nearby areas will still need to watch for storms if the dryline can fire activity far enough south into Texas.
Sunday’s severe storm outlook keeps isolated severe storm potential in place, with the greatest hail concern from around Wichita Falls to Sherman.
Rain chances continue into next week
The overall weather pattern stays active into next week.
That does not mean everybody gets rain every day. Texas has 254 counties, and some part of the state can have storms while a large chunk of the state gets nothing. But we are in a pattern where at least isolated thunderstorm chances may continue on several days.
The best chance for more meaningful rainfall through Wednesday morning looks to be across North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex. Some areas in Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex may pick up around an inch or more, while much of the rest of the state sees little to nothing through that time frame.
Forecast rain totals through Wednesday morning show the heaviest rainfall potential from North Texas into Northeast Texas and East Texas.
Fire danger remains a big concern out west
While parts of eastern Texas deal with storm chances, the western side of the state has a very different problem.
Very high to extreme wildfire danger continues across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Guadalupe Mountains, the Permian Basin, and into the Borderland. West of the dryline, the air will be hot, windy, and extremely dry during the afternoon. That is a bad combination when fuels are dry and rain has been hard to come by.
So the split-screen Texas weather pattern continues. East of the dryline, it is humid and stormy in spots. West of the dryline, fire danger remains a serious issue.
Hot and humid weather is not going anywhere yet
If you were hoping for a cool weekend, you are going to be disappointed.
Most of Texas will stay in the 80s and 90s through the weekend. South Texas, the Rio Grande Plains, the Big Country, the Concho Valley, and parts of Northwest Texas may push the upper 90s to near 100 degrees over the next few days.
Nights will stay muggy across the eastern and southeastern parts of Texas, with many areas struggling to drop below 70 degrees. That is not too far removed from what we expect once summer gets closer, and it is a reminder that late April is not exactly early spring around here anymore.
By the second half of next week, we may get a cold front to move south into Texas. If that happens, it could bring more widespread rain and thunderstorms, along with at least some relief from the heat. That is still several days away, so we will deal with that as details become clearer.
Bottom line
The main concern today is the severe weather risk increasing this evening across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and the ArkLaTex.
The strongest storms may produce very large hail, damaging winds over 70 mph, and a low tornado risk. The highest concern is generally from Sherman southeast toward Canton, Tyler, Waskom, and up toward Texarkana.
Farther west, isolated severe storms are possible from North Texas into Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country if the cap breaks. Most folks there may stay dry, but any storm that forms could become intense quickly.
More storm chances continue Saturday and Sunday, wildfire danger remains high to extreme out west, and hot, humid weather continues for much of Texas.
We will likely have live severe weather coverage this evening as storms move toward and into Texas.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also watch live severe weather coverage on the Texas Storm Chasers and Texas Weather Roundup YouTube channels, along with updates in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.