A significant severe weather setup is possible later today across portions of North Texas, eastern Texoma, and Northeast Texas.
This is not a setup where everyone in the risk area is guaranteed to see storms. In fact, most folks may not. The problem is that any storm that does develop this evening could become intense quickly and pack one heck of a punch.
The highest severe weather concern is near the Red River into Northeast Texas, including parts of northern Grayson, Fannin, Lamar, and Red River counties. That includes places like Bonham, Paris, Clarksville, and areas northeast of Sherman. Some of those same communities were hit by severe storms last night and early this morning, and unfortunately, the threat today is higher.
Level 4 risk near the Red River and Northeast Texas
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Level 4 out of 5 severe weather risk for portions of North Texas and Northeast Texas. That higher-end risk includes areas near the Red River and into Northeast Texas, where storms are most likely to become intense this evening.
A surrounding Level 3 out of 5 risk includes the northern DFW Metroplex and areas generally along and north of a line from Gainesville to Denton, McKinney, Greenville, north of Tyler, Longview, and Texarkana. Those are not hard edges, but they give you the general corridor we are watching most closely today.
Saturday’s updated severe storm outlook shows the highest severe weather risk across North Texas and Northeast Texas, with very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible.
Main threats this evening
The strongest storms later today may produce very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
Hail could reach 4 to 5 inches in diameter in the most intense storms. That is softball to grapefruit size hail, and it can cause significant damage to vehicles, roofs, windows, livestock, and anything left outside. Damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph are also possible, and a few gusts could be higher in the strongest storms.
There is also a tornado risk this evening. This is not something to ignore. The tornado threat is on the higher end of the spectrum compared to many of our recent Texas setups, especially near the Red River into Northeast Texas. If a tornado develops, the environment may support a stronger or longer-lived tornado.
That does not mean everyone gets a tornado warning. It means today is a day where you need to take warnings seriously if they are issued for your location.
Timing and areas to watch
The earliest storm development may occur west of the DFW Metroplex and western North Texas later this afternoon, perhaps around 4 to 5 PM. If the cap breaks and storms develop in that area, they could go from nothing to a very tall, intense supercell quickly. Those initial storms would be capable of extremely large hail.
The tornado threat may increase closer to 6 or 7 PM and continue into the evening. We also expect intense storms to develop in southern Oklahoma and move southeast across the Red River into Northeast Texas. That may occur around the 7 to 9 PM timeframe, give or take, depending on storm evolution.
Communities that need to stay especially weather-aware include Gainesville, Denton, McKinney, Sherman, Bonham, Greenville, Paris, Clarksville, Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, and nearby areas.
Storm coverage may be limited, but impacts could be high
This is the part that matters.
Most people in Texas will not see storms today. Even in the risk area, some locations may get through the evening with nothing more than humidity and nerves. But the atmosphere is volatile enough that the storms that do form could become severe quickly.
That makes this a low-coverage but potentially high-impact setup.
If storms develop west of DFW, they could quickly become hail producers. If storms move out of southern Oklahoma into Northeast Texas this evening, they may already have a history of significant severe weather before they cross the Red River.
So do not use quiet weather at your house at 3 or 4 PM as proof that nothing will happen later.
A lower-end risk extends farther south
There is also a non-zero chance of an isolated severe storm farther south into Central Texas and the Hill Country today.
That risk is more conditional and less likely than the threat farther north. If a storm develops in those areas, very large hail would be the main threat. Most folks farther south will probably not deal with storms, but we will keep an eye on the radar trends.
What you should do before storms develop
Today is a good day to go through the basics before storms get going.
Make sure you have more than one way to receive warnings. Do not rely only on outdoor sirens. Those are meant for people outside, and you may not hear them indoors.
Know where you will go if a tornado warning is issued. The best place is a small interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. If you live in a mobile home, have a plan to get to a sturdier shelter before storms arrive.
If you are in the giant hail risk area, get vehicles under cover before storms arrive. Once hail is falling, it is too late to move anything safely.
Live severe weather coverage expected later today
We expect to have live Texas severe weather coverage later today as storms approach or move into Texas.
If storms fire west of I-35 in North Texas, coverage may begin earlier. If the primary storms develop in southern Oklahoma and move southeast toward the Red River, coverage will focus on those storms as they approach North Texas and Northeast Texas later this evening.
As always, we will track radar trends, warnings, storm motion, hail cores, rotation, and timing as storms evolve.
Bottom line
A significant severe weather threat is possible this evening across North Texas, eastern Texoma, and Northeast Texas.
The highest concern is near the Red River into Northeast Texas, including areas around Bonham, Paris, Clarksville, northern Grayson County, Fannin County, Lamar County, and Red River County. The northern DFW Metroplex into Northeast Texas also needs to stay weather-aware.
Most people will not get storms today. But any storm that develops could become dangerous quickly, with softball to grapefruit-size hail, damaging winds of 70 to 80 mph or higher, and tornadoes possible.
This is a day to stay aware, have your warning sources ready, and be prepared to act if warnings are issued.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also watch live severe weather coverage later today on Texas Storm Chasers and Texas Weather Roundup on YouTube, along with updates in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.