Things are much calmer across Texas early this Sunday afternoon compared to last night and this morning.
As of this update, there are no thunderstorms ongoing in Texas. The eastern half of the state remains stuck in a warm and very humid air mass, with low clouds, some fair-weather cumulus, and upper-level clouds moving across the state. Out west, it is a very different story: clear skies, hot temperatures, and very high to extreme fire danger across the Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and into the Borderland.
So for most Texans, the rest of the day may stay quiet. But we still have a conditional severe storm risk to watch later this afternoon and evening.
Conditional severe storm risk this evening
Between about 5 PM and 11 PM, we may see one or two severe thunderstorms develop east of the dryline across portions of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, North Texas, Texoma, and possibly down toward the Hill Country.
The key word is conditional.
This setup depends on whether the cap, or lid on the atmosphere, can break. If that lid holds, storms will not develop and the rest of the day will be pretty inactive for most of Texas. There is at least a 50/50 shot, if not higher, that we do not get storms in Texas today.
But if one or two storms manage to punch through, they could become severe in a hurry.
Main threats if storms develop
If storms form this evening, they could produce hazards similar to what we saw yesterday in the strongest storms.
The main threats would include very large hail, potentially baseball size or larger, localized damaging wind gusts, and a low tornado risk. The tornado risk would be more of a concern after about 6 or 7 PM, and only if storms actually develop and sustain themselves.
This is not a widespread storm setup for Texas. Most folks are not expected to see storms today. But it only takes one storm over your town to make it your problem.
That is why we are watching.
Areas to watch
The areas we will keep an eye on through this evening include Northwest Texas, the Big Country, North Texas, Texoma, and possibly the Hill Country.
If you are in the DFW Metroplex, one simple way to think about this is to keep an eye to the west late this afternoon and early this evening. If you suddenly see a large thunderhead building quickly, that would be a sign the cap has broken and a storm has managed to develop.
The same goes for folks from Texoma and Wichita Falls south toward Brownwood and nearby areas. Most communities may stay dry, but any storm that forms could become rowdy for a while as it moves east.
Hopefully the cap holds
The best-case scenario for Texas is pretty simple: the lid on the atmosphere holds, storms fail to develop, and we all get through the rest of the day without more severe weather.
That is entirely possible today.
Confidence in storm development is lower than yesterday, and there is a decent chance Texas stays quiet while Oklahoma and Kansas deal with a more active severe weather day.
That said, this is late April. We do not ignore a loaded environment just because storms are uncertain. We watch satellite, radar, surface observations, and real-time trends to see whether anything starts bubbling up along or east of the dryline.
Sunday’s updated severe storm outlook shows the greatest severe weather concern from North Texas into East Texas, where large hail and damaging winds are possible.
Fire danger remains high out west
While the storm risk is conditional in the eastern half of the state, fire danger remains a more straightforward concern out west.
Very high to extreme wildfire danger continues today across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and into the Borderland. That is where skies are clearer, the air is hotter and drier, and afternoon winds can still create problems if a fire gets started.
So once again, Texas is split between two very different weather concerns: conditional severe storms east of the dryline and wildfire danger west of it.
Model data is not the answer today
This is one of those days where model data only helps so much.
When storm chances depend on whether one or two storms can break through a cap, short-range models can struggle badly. One run may show storms. Another may show nothing. The real answer will come from satellite imagery, surface observations, and watching whether cumulus clouds can deepen along the dryline later this afternoon.
So we will not pretend one model run has the whole thing nailed down. It does not.
Today is a real-time observation day.
Live coverage if storms develop
If severe storms develop in Texas this afternoon or evening, we will have live severe weather coverage again.
If nothing develops, that is good news. We will gladly take a quiet Sunday evening over more hail, wind, and tornado warnings.
But if the cap breaks and storms go up, we will be here tracking radar trends, storm motion, hail cores, damaging wind potential, and any rotation issues.
Bottom line
Most of Texas is quiet early this Sunday afternoon, and there is a decent chance much of the state stays that way through the rest of the day.
However, a conditional severe storm risk remains in place this evening from Northwest Texas and the Big Country into North Texas, Texoma, and possibly the Hill Country. If one or two storms can break the cap, they could produce very large hail, damaging winds, and a low tornado risk.
So keep the potential in the back of your head, especially if you are in or near those areas. Hopefully the atmosphere behaves itself and the cap holds.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also watch live severe weather coverage, if needed, on Texas Storm Chasers and Texas Weather Roundup on YouTube, along with updates in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.