The active late-April weather pattern is not done with Texas.
We had a busy weekend, and we are probably going to keep dealing with daily thunderstorm chances through much of this week. That does not mean every day is going to look like Saturday evening, and it certainly does not mean everyone in Texas is getting severe weather every day. Each day has its own setup, its own hazards, and its own level of concern.
That said, it is late April, and this pattern still has enough instability, moisture, and lift to produce some rowdy storms at times. Hail will likely be the most common severe weather concern through the first half of the week, while a better chance for widespread rain and cooler weather shows up late week.
Severe storm chances today and tonight
For today into tonight, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the Concho Valley and western or northern Hill Country into Central Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex.
The highest storm coverage is expected to be in Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex near a lingering boundary. Storms may also extend west toward the DFW Metroplex this afternoon and evening. Farther southwest, isolated hailers may develop into the Concho Valley and Southern Permian Basin before moving east or northeast into the evening.
The main threats today are very large hail, damaging wind gusts over 70 mph, and a low tornado risk. The tornado risk is not the main story today, but it is not zero, especially with storms in Northeast Texas.
There is also a conditional signal for a few overnight hail storms in North Texas or Texoma well after midnight, perhaps closer to the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. That is not a guarantee, but it is worth mentioning because nobody enjoys being surprised by hail at 4 AM.
Tuesday brings another round of storm chances
Tuesday looks similar in the sense that isolated to scattered severe storms will again be possible.
The risk area includes the Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, Texoma, especially eastern Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex. Any stronger storm could produce very large hail, localized damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, especially in North Texas and Northeast Texas.
Storms may again develop during the afternoon and evening, with the potential for some activity to organize and move south or southeast into East Texas. Localized flooding may also become a concern in heavier rain, especially if storms repeat over the same areas.
This is not a statewide severe weather outbreak setup, but it is another day where a few storms could make a mess where they develop.
Wednesday shifts the focus south and east
By Wednesday, the severe weather risk should decrease some and shift farther south and east.
The areas to watch include the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, South Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. There may still be a few stronger storms, but the pattern should begin transitioning away from the more isolated, intense hail storm setup and toward a broader rain pattern later in the week.
That transition is important because it means the weather may finally become more useful for a larger part of Texas instead of just producing isolated storm problems.
Widespread rain becomes more likely late week
Thursday and Friday are when the forecast starts looking more interesting for rain.
A front is expected to move south into Texas, and that should help shift the pattern toward more widespread showers and thunderstorms. If current trends hold, this could become one of the better widespread rain events many Texans have seen in a while.
Some areas could pick up a few inches of rain by the time the late-week system is done. We will have to fine-tune the exact placement and totals over the next couple of days, but the signal for more meaningful rainfall is there.
There may still be thunderstorms in the mix, and a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, but the overall risk for the big, nasty severe weather hazards should start coming down as the pattern becomes cooler and wetter.
In plain English: we may trade isolated hailers for a more widespread beneficial rain setup. That is a deal most of Texas will gladly take.
Wildfire danger remains a problem out west
While parts of Central, North, and East Texas watch storm chances, the western side of the state is still dealing with fire weather.
Very high to extreme wildfire danger continues today and Tuesday across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. High fire danger also extends through the Guadalupe Mountains, Permian Basin, Borderland, and El Paso area. Gusty west winds, blowing dust, low humidity, and dry fuels will keep the fire threat elevated west of the dryline.
That split-screen Texas weather pattern continues: humid and stormy east of the dryline, hot and dry with fire danger west of it.
Heat and humidity stick around before the front
Ahead of the late-week front, much of Texas will stay hot and humid.
Highs today will reach the low to mid 90s across much of the eastern two-thirds of the state. Even where temperatures stay in the upper 80s across parts of East Texas, the humidity will make it feel warmer, with heat index values near 100 degrees in some areas.
Tonight stays very muggy across the southeastern half of Texas, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. That deep moisture is part of the reason the atmosphere remains unstable and capable of producing stronger storms.
Tuesday will be even hotter in some areas, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees in parts of South Texas, the Rio Grande Plains, and the Trans-Pecos. Then by Wednesday, a boundary begins pushing south, bringing cooler air into the northern half of Texas. Highs there may drop back into the 70s, which will feel much better than the heat and humidity we are dealing with now.
Cooler weather arrives late week
By Thursday and Friday, cooler air should become much more noticeable across the northern half of Texas.
Thursday highs may only reach the 60s and 70s across parts of North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, the Panhandle, and West Texas, while South Texas remains warmer. By Friday, parts of the Panhandle may only be in the 50s for highs, with 60s across the northern third of Texas and rain ongoing in some areas.
For the first day of May, that is a pretty healthy cooldown.
It will also feel much better to get rid of the 70-degree dew points for a bit. Nobody is going to complain about that after this muggy stretch.
Live coverage if severe storms develop
If severe storms develop today or Tuesday, Texas Storm Chasers will have live severe weather coverage on YouTube.
For longer-duration severe storm tracking, YouTube is where live coverage usually starts. If tornado warnings are issued, coverage may also expand to Facebook, X, and other platforms. That helps keep shorter-form platforms focused on the highest-impact warning situations while still allowing full storm tracking where it works best.
You can also follow radar anytime through the Texas Storm Chasers website and the free Texas Storm Chasers app.
Bottom line
The active Texas weather pattern continues this week.
Today and Tuesday bring isolated to scattered severe storm chances, especially from parts of the Concho Valley, Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex. The main threats are very large hail, damaging winds, and a low tornado risk.
Wednesday shifts storm chances farther south and east. Then Thursday and Friday should bring a transition toward more widespread rain and cooler temperatures as a front moves south through Texas. Some areas could pick up several inches of beneficial rain.
Out west, wildfire danger remains high to extreme in the Panhandle and West Texas, so not everyone is dealing with the same weather problem.
It is late April in Texas. That means hail, heat, humidity, fire danger, rain chances, and a cold front can all show up in the same forecast. Congratulations, we live here.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also get local forecasts, radar, alerts, forecast updates, and live coverage in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.