A cold front moving south across Texas is bringing another active weather day, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible today before the pattern shifts toward a widespread rain event Thursday night into Friday.
Today’s main severe weather concern will be large hail and damaging winds. Then, as we get into Thursday night and Friday, the bigger story becomes heavy rain, possible flooding, and cooler weather for a good chunk of Texas.
So yes, we are still in late-April weather mode. Hail today. Rain and flooding concerns next. Cooler air behind it. Because apparently, Texas wanted the full sampler platter.
Severe storms possible today
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today from the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country through Central Texas, South Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, Northeast Texas, the ArkLaTex, North Texas, and nearby areas.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is already in effect for Northeast Texas until 7 PM, and additional watches may be needed farther southwest into the Brazos Valley, Central Texas, and the Hill Country.
The main hazard today is hail. Some stronger storms may produce hail up to around baseball size, with damaging wind gusts over 60 to 70 mph also possible. The tornado risk is very low, but not zero.
That means today is not a big tornado setup, but it is also not a day to ignore warnings if one is issued for your location.
Severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of Texas, with damaging winds and hail the main concerns.
Hail is the main concern
The atmosphere has plenty of energy to work with, and that means hail will be the main issue with stronger storms today.
Not every storm is going to throw baseball-size hail. Most will not. But the stronger storms in this setup could produce large to very large hail, along with gusty winds and frequent lightning.
Storms have already been producing large hail near Texarkana as of the late morning update, and more activity is expected to develop along and near the front through the afternoon and evening.
Storm timing today
Storms will remain possible through the afternoon and evening hours along and near the cold front.
The corridor from the Hill Country and Central Texas northeast into the Brazos Valley, East Texas, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex will need to keep an eye on radar trends today. Further south, parts of the Edwards Plateau and South Texas may also experience storms later today and tonight.
As always, the exact placement of storms will depend on where the front is located, where boundaries set up, and how storms interact with the atmosphere during the day.
In plain English: do not get hung up on the exact lines on a map. If storms develop near you, they may become strong enough to produce hail and damaging winds.
Heavy rain and flooding concerns increase Thursday night and Friday
By Thursday night and Friday, the forecast shifts from a severe-storm setup to a more widespread rain-and-flooding concern.
A good portion of Texas should see rain as the front continues south and moisture rides up and over the cooler air. This looks like one of the better, more widespread rain events that many parts of Texas have seen in a while.
That is good news overall. We need rain.
The problem is that some areas may get too much rain too quickly, especially Thursday night into Friday.
Flash flood risk increases Thursday night into Friday morning across parts of West, Central, and North Texas.
Areas to watch for flooding
Scattered flash flooding will be possible Thursday night across parts of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, and the Concho Valley. Isolated flooding issues may also extend back toward the Big Country, the Permian Basin, the Big Bend, and the Borderland.
By Friday and Friday night, the flooding risk continues and shifts or expands across Central Texas, the Hill Country, East Texas, Northeast Texas, Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, South Central Texas, and the Piney Woods.
This will not be a flooding problem for everyone. But where heavier bands of rain set up, street flooding, rising creeks and streams, and ponding on roads could become issues.
Flooding risk increases Friday as widespread heavy rain spreads across Central, North, East, and Southeast Texas.
Rain totals could be healthy
Forecast rainfall totals continue to look promising for much of Texas.
Many areas may pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain between today and Saturday morning. Parts of the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and the Piney Woods may see 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher totals possible where heavier rain bands repeat.
As usual, some folks will get less than forecast, and a few will probably get more. That is how these rain events work.
The bigger picture is that most of Texas has at least some chance of measurable rainfall from this system. That is a good thing, as long as we can keep the flooding issues localized and manageable.
Widespread rain totals of 1 to 4 inches are forecast across parts of Texas through Monday morning.
Cooler weather arrives behind the front
The cold front will also bring a noticeable cooldown, especially across the northern two-thirds of Texas.
By Friday and into the weekend, temperatures north of Interstate 10 should be much cooler than the hot and humid weather we have been dealing with. Parts of the Panhandle may even see frost or a light freeze Friday night and Saturday night.
That is a pretty sharp change for late April heading into early May, but honestly, after the humidity and storm chances, a cooler stretch will not be the worst thing.
Weekend outlook
Rain should move out for most areas by Saturday morning or Saturday afternoon, with the rest of the weekend looking cooler for a large part of Texas.
Northern and central portions of the state should get the biggest relief from the heat. South Texas and the coast will be slower to cool down, but even there, the front should eventually help push some change south.
The severe weather risk should also decrease as we move into the cooler, wetter side of the pattern, though some thunder will still be possible while the rain is ongoing.
Bottom line
Today brings another round of scattered severe thunderstorm chances across parts of Texas, with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. The tornado risk is very low, but not zero.
Thursday night into Friday, the focus shifts to widespread rain and possible flooding. Some areas may pick up several inches of rain, especially across the Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and nearby regions.
The good news is that much of Texas should get beneficial rain. The not-so-good news is that some spots may get too much rain too fast.
As always, do not be scared. Be prepared. We will keep an eye on the sky and let you know if any big, bad, very mad issues show up.
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