If you are in Texas, there is a pretty good chance you are going to see rain at some point over the next 48 hours.
We are ending April on a wet and stormy note as widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the state today, tonight, and Friday. For many Texans, this will be good rain. We need it. The problem is that some folks may get too much rain too quickly, especially where multiple rounds of storms move over the same areas.
This is not the same kind of severe weather setup we have been dealing with over the last several days. The tornado threat is very low, and the overall high-end damaging wind risk is lower. Some storms may still produce hail and plenty of lightning, but the main concern is shifting toward heavy rain, street flooding, rising creeks and streams, and localized flash flooding.
Widespread rain and storms through Friday
Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across Texas through tonight, Friday, and Friday night. By the time this system moves out Saturday morning, much of the state should have picked up at least some rain.
That is good news for many areas that could use the moisture. It is also why this setup is different from the more isolated severe storm days we dealt with earlier in the week. Instead of a few big hailers causing problems in localized spots, this is more of a widespread rain event with embedded thunderstorms.
The storms will have frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, heavy rain, and some hail. A few storms may become severe, but we are not looking at a widespread tornado or destructive wind setup.
In other words, the main weather problem is water.
Flooding concerns tonight into Friday
Flooding concerns will increase tonight into Friday morning across parts of the Edwards Plateau, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Central Texas, and South Central Texas.
Rain chances increase Thursday night with a scattered flash flood risk across parts of Southwest and Central Texas.
By Friday and Friday night, that localized flooding risk expands farther east into the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, East Texas, the Golden Triangle, and the Piney Woods.
Not everyone in those areas will flood. That is not how these setups work.
Widespread rain and thunderstorms Friday bring an increased flash flood risk to Central, East, and Southeast Texas.
The concern is where heavier storms train or repeat over the same communities. Those spots could see rain totals add up quickly, especially after the ground becomes saturated from earlier rounds. That is when we can start dealing with street flooding, water over low-water crossings, fast rises on creeks and streams, and ponding in poor drainage areas.
Construction zones, low spots, and urban areas will also be more prone to issues if heavy rain falls quickly.
Rain totals could be healthy
On a broad regional basis, 1 to 4 inches of rain will be possible across a large part of Texas. That includes portions of the Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, eastern Big Bend, Edwards Plateau, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Central Texas, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Piney Woods, and the Golden Triangle.
As always, those are not backyard rain gauge guarantees.
Some folks will get less. Some will get more. A few spots could end up with 5 or 6 inches if repeated heavier storms move over the same area. That is where flooding concerns would become more substantial.
Widespread rain totals of 1 to 4 inches are forecast across a large part of Texas through Sunday morning.
So the message is simple: enjoy the rain, but respect the water if your area gets hit by multiple rounds.
Severe weather risk is lower, but hail and lightning remain possible
Compared to the last several days, this is a much different storm setup.
We are not focused on a widespread tornado threat. We are not expecting a big outbreak of destructive wind or giant hail. That said, stronger storms may still produce hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
The tornado risk is very low for most areas. We will keep a small eye on the South Texas Coast, Coastal Bend, and Coastal Plains Friday afternoon and evening, but for the vast majority of Texas, this is not a tornado-focused forecast.
That does not mean storms cannot be annoying, loud, or locally strong. It just means the bigger issue is rain.
Cooler air settles in behind the front
This system is also bringing a noticeable cooldown for much of Texas.
Today is already cooler across the northern two-thirds of the state, with many areas only in the upper 50s, 60s, and low 70s. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are still warmer, with 90s holding on there for now.
Friday will be downright chilly for early May standards across parts of Texas. Highs may only reach the 50s in places like Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland, Abilene, and DFW, with 60s across much of Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and East Texas.
Parts of the northwestern Panhandle may even see a light freeze Friday night into Saturday morning. That matters for agricultural interests and anyone with sensitive plants in that part of the state.
Weekend looks much nicer
The good news is that rain should move out by Saturday morning for most areas.
After that, the weekend looks much nicer. Temperatures Saturday afternoon should climb into the upper 60s and 70s for many locations, and the air should be drier behind the front. Sunday morning will be chilly by early May standards, with many areas in the 40s and 50s, but the warm-up begins later Sunday into Monday.
By Monday, 80s return to much of Texas, with a few low 90s also showing back up.
So yes, we get a couple of cool, damp days. Then Texas starts doing Texas things again.
Looking ahead into next week
After this system exits, the pattern looks quieter for a few days.
We may see storm chances try to return around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, but the first week or two of May does not currently look as active as the pattern we have been stuck in recently. That does not mean the severe weather season is over. Never say never in Texas during May. That is just a good way to taunt Mother Nature, and we do not need to do that.
For now, the main focus is getting through the widespread rain and localized flooding potential tonight and Friday.
Bottom line
Widespread showers and storms will continue across Texas through Friday, and many areas should get beneficial rain.
The main concern is localized flooding where heavier storms repeat over the same locations. Flooding concerns are highest across parts of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, South Central Texas, Concho Valley, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, Golden Triangle, and Piney Woods.
Most storms will not be high-end severe weather producers, but hail, lightning, and gusty winds remain possible. The tornado risk is very low for most of Texas.
Rain moves out by Saturday morning for most areas, and the weekend looks much nicer with cooler and drier weather behind the front.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
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