A new week is underway across Texas, and thankfully, we are starting it off much calmer than how last week ended.
That said, we are not completely done with storm chances. A couple of opportunities for thunderstorms will return Tuesday and Wednesday as another cool front moves south through the state. A few storms may become severe, mainly with large hail and damaging winds, but at this point this does not look like a widespread, high-end severe weather setup for Texas.
In other words, it is May in Texas. We are going to have to watch the sky, but we are not ringing every alarm bell in the building.
A quick look back at Friday’s damaging storm
Before we get into the forecast, it is worth briefly touching on what happened Friday along parts of the Coastal Plains.
A storm complex produced a roughly 40-mile-long swath of significant wind damage south of Victoria toward Point Comfort and the coast, with estimated winds of 70 to 120 mph in spots. There was also an EF-1 tornado near Inez and Yorktown Road.
This event overperformed in a way that deserves a closer look. The storms were located roughly between the Corpus Christi and Houston radar sites, meaning radar was sampling several thousand feet above the ground. The storms did not look dramatically different on radar from other storms earlier that morning until surface observations started showing very strong wind gusts.
NWS survey finds destructive straight-line winds up to 120 mph across parts of the Coastal Bend.
An EF1 tornado was confirmed with winds near 110 mph and a brief path length.
That is a good reminder that radar coverage matters, especially in parts of Texas that sit farther away from a radar site. We will likely take a deeper look at that event later, because there are some lessons worth pulling from it.
Today looks quiet for nearly all of Texas
For today, almost all of Texas should avoid thunderstorms.
There is a very low, non-zero chance of a storm near the Red River in Texoma, more likely on the Oklahoma side than the Texas side. If a storm does develop near the Red River, it could produce hail and strong wind gusts as it moves east.
For the rest of Texas, it is mainly a dry day.
That changes a bit Tuesday.
Tuesday brings a conditional severe storm chance
Tuesday afternoon and evening will bring a chance for isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms from the northern Hill Country and eastern Concho Valley into North Texas, eastern Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex.
That includes areas generally from just east of San Angelo and Junction north through Killeen, Waco, DFW, Sherman, Gainesville, Bonham, Paris, Clarksville, Boston, Texarkana, Tyler, Longview, and Marshall.
A few strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into the evening across parts of North and Central Texas.
Most folks in that corridor will probably not see storms. There is also a chance storms fail to develop at all in some areas.
But if storms do form, they could produce hail up to tennis ball size, localized damaging winds, and a very low tornado risk. This is not a big tornado setup, but stronger storms in May can still cause problems even without a major tornado threat.
Wednesday storm chances increase as a cool front moves south
Wednesday looks a bit more active as a cool front moves south through Texas.
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from the Hill Country east through South Central Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, the Piney Woods, Toledo Bend Reservoir, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle.
The main concerns Wednesday would be large hail and damaging winds. Hail could reach golf ball to tennis ball size in a few stronger storms, especially if storms stay more discrete. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph will also be possible. The tornado risk again looks very low.
Scattered severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across Central, East, and Southeast Texas.
The better storm chances should come with the front itself, so Wednesday may end up being the more noticeable storm day for parts of Central, East, and Southeast Texas.
Rain chances continue into the weekend
Rainfall through Saturday morning looks uneven, but parts of the southeastern half of Texas may pick up at least some rain.
On a broad regional basis, a quarter to half inch of rain may occur across parts of the southeastern half of Texas, with locally heavier amounts possible in East Texas and the Golden Triangle. Additional heavier rain may also try to develop in the Rio Grande Plains depending on how the weekend system evolves.
As always, do not treat the rain map like it is giving you the exact amount for your backyard. Some folks will get less. Some could get more. That is especially true when thunderstorms are involved.
Another system may show up next weekend
After the Tuesday and Wednesday storm chances, the pattern may turn a little interesting again by next weekend.
A northwesterly flow aloft may help push another front south, while another system may try to move in from Baja California. That could bring another round of rain and storms to Texas next weekend.
Right now, that looks more like a possible rainmaker than a big severe weather setup, but it is still several days away. We will watch how the upper-level pattern evolves through the week.
The good news is that, for now, we are not looking at widespread softball-size hail and tornado risks every day this week. That is not on the bingo card right now.
Temperature swings continue this week
Temperatures are doing Texas things this week.
Today will be warm to hot in parts of the state, especially across Northwest Texas, the eastern Panhandle, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, Big Bend, and South Texas. Much of the rest of Texas will be in the 80s.
Tonight, moisture returns inland after the nicer, drier weekend. That means low clouds, pockets of fog, and a more humid night for many areas. Lows will generally be in the 60s and 70s for most of the state.
Tuesday will be warmer for a good chunk of Texas, with upper 90s possible in South Texas and the Rio Grande Plains. A front arriving in the Panhandle, Northwest Texas, and Texoma will determine who ends up hot and who starts cooling down sooner.
A sharp cooldown arrives for parts of Texas
By Wednesday and Thursday, the cool front makes a much bigger difference.
Wednesday morning may bring 30s to the Panhandle, 40s in West Texas, and 50s into Northwest Texas. Farther south and east, it will still be warm and humid, with 60s and 70s. Highs Wednesday may range from the 50s in the northern Panhandle to the upper 90s in Deep South Texas.
Thursday morning could bring a late-season freeze to the northwestern Panhandle, with lows potentially falling into the upper 20s around Dalhart. That is very late in the season, but it is something agricultural interests in that part of the state need to watch.
For the rest of Texas, Thursday should feel better behind the front, with lower humidity and highs mostly in the 70s for a large part of the state. South Texas and the coast will stay warmer.
Bottom line
Most of Texas stays quiet today, with only a very low storm chance near the Red River.
Storm chances return Tuesday across parts of the northern Hill Country, eastern Concho Valley, North Texas, eastern Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex. A few storms could produce large hail and damaging winds if they develop.
Wednesday brings a better chance for storms as a cool front moves south, especially from the Hill Country into Central Texas, South Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle.
This is an active May pattern, but it does not currently look like a repeat of last week’s more aggressive severe weather stretch. We will keep an eye on it, because it is still May in Texas, and Mother Nature does not need much encouragement.
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