Strong to severe storms are back in the Texas forecast today and Wednesday, and because this is Texas in May, we are also talking about a chance of wet snow in the northwestern Panhandle.
Yes, really.
The main weather concern for most folks today and Wednesday will be thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, localized damaging winds, frequent lightning, and some heavy rain. The tornado risk looks very low both days, but as usual, very low does not mean zero. We will keep an eye on it, but this does not look like a higher-end tornado setup at this time.
Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on today’s severe storm risk, Wednesday’s storm chances, the northwestern Panhandle snow possibility, and late-week temperature swings.
Severe storms possible today in North Texas and Northeast Texas
Today’s severe storm risk is focused along and near a stalled boundary across North Texas, the DFW Metroplex, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex.
The main window looks to be from about 5 PM through 11 PM or midnight. Scattered severe thunderstorms may develop during that time, especially near that boundary. If storms get going, they could produce large to very large hail, perhaps up to tennis ball size or a little larger, along with localized damaging wind gusts over 60 mph.
Unfortunately, this boundary may set up near or over the DFW Metroplex, so we will need to watch radar trends carefully later today. This is not a guarantee that everyone in DFW sees severe weather, but it is enough of a signal that folks in and around the Metroplex need to keep an eye on the sky.
Farther southwest into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, a storm or two cannot be completely ruled out, but the atmosphere may remain capped enough to limit thunderstorm development.
Main threats today
The main concern today is hail.
A few stronger storms could produce hail up to tennis ball size, perhaps a bit larger in the most intense cores. Localized damaging wind gusts over 60 mph will also be possible. The tornado risk is currently very low thanks to weak low-level wind shear, but we will still monitor trends in case the setup changes later today.
Most storms will not produce extreme hail. But if you end up under one of the stronger storms, it could become a problem quickly.
Wednesday storm risk shifts farther south
On Wednesday, the boundary moves south, and the storm risk shifts with it.
Isolated to scattered storms will be possible from the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley into the Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Piney Woods, ArkLaTex, and parts of North Texas.
The main threats Wednesday will again be large hail, damaging winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and heavy rain. The tornado risk still appears very low, but not zero.
Storms on Wednesday should generally move slowly toward the east or northeast. That could allow a few spots to pick up heavier rain if storms sit over the same area for a while, but this does not look like a widespread flooding setup right now.
Wet snow possible in the northwestern Panhandle
Now for the oddball part of the forecast.
Rain may change to wet snow Wednesday evening into Wednesday night across parts of the northwestern Texas Panhandle, including areas near Dalhart. This is not expected to be a major snowstorm for Texas, and soil temperatures should be too warm for meaningful accumulation. If any snow does manage to briefly accumulate, it should melt fairly quickly.
Still, it is May 6 into May 7, and we are talking about wet snow in the Texas Panhandle. That gets your attention.
The bigger practical issue may be the cold itself.
Hard freeze risk Thursday morning in the Panhandle
A hard freeze is possible Thursday morning across parts of the northwestern Panhandle.
Temperatures may drop into the mid to upper 20s near the Texas/New Mexico state line and the Oklahoma Panhandle/Texas border region. Dalhart, Dumas, Perryton, Pampa, Canadian, Amarillo, Plainview, and nearby areas will need to watch temperature trends closely.
That matters for agricultural interests, sensitive vegetation, and anyone who already moved fully into spring planting mode. It is late in the season for this kind of cold, but Mother Nature apparently did not ask for our approval.
Rain chances continue into the weekend, but flooding risk looks low
After Wednesday, the pattern becomes less organized.
There may be scattered showers and storms at times this weekend into early next week, especially across the southeastern half of Texas, southern Texas, and the coast. At this point, nothing looks especially organized or widespread.
Rain totals through Sunday morning look fairly modest for most areas. Some locations may pick up over a quarter inch of rain, with locally higher amounts under heavier storms. The northwestern Panhandle may also pick up measurable precipitation from rain or melted snow.
For now, widespread flooding does not look likely. Any flooding issues should stay very localized, mainly where a stronger storm sits over the same area for a while.
Temperatures swing all over the place
Temperatures are doing very Texas things this week.
Today will be warm to hot across much of the state, with near 100 degrees possible in the Rio Grande Plains and South Texas. North Texas, East Texas, and parts of the Hill Country will be in the 80s to low 90s, while the Panhandle stays cooler.
By Wednesday, the temperature contrast becomes much more obvious. The northern Panhandle may stay chilly, while Deep South Texas pushes toward 100 degrees. That kind of temperature gradient is exactly what you expect when a strong late-season front is cutting through the state.
Thursday will be much cooler for the northern three-quarters of Texas, with many areas in the 60s and 70s. South Texas and the coast will stay warmer.
By Friday and Saturday, warmer air starts returning quickly, with 90s showing back up across parts of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, West Texas, the Permian Basin, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Plains.
Pattern may quiet down next week
Going into next week, the jet stream looks to stay farther north, which may help Texas settle into a less active pattern for organized severe storms.
That does not mean storms are impossible. If humidity returns and we get enough daytime heating, a few storms may still pop up here and there, more like summertime-style storms that develop, rain themselves out, and fade. But for now, next week does not look like a repeat of the more active severe weather pattern we dealt with recently.
That would be just fine.
Bottom line
Strong to severe storms are possible today across North Texas, the DFW Metroplex, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, with a very low tornado risk.
Wednesday, the storm risk shifts farther south into the Edwards Plateau, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Piney Woods, ArkLaTex, and parts of North Texas. Large hail, damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain remain possible.
Meanwhile, parts of the northwestern Panhandle may see rain change to wet snow Wednesday night, followed by a hard freeze risk Thursday morning.
So yes, hail in one part of Texas, snow in another, and near 100-degree heat somewhere else. Welcome to May.
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