Parts of the Hill Country had a rough start to Wednesday.
Strong storms developed this morning and produced large hail across portions of the Hill Country, including areas from Junction toward Mason, Llano, Gillespie County, and Blanco County. Some hail reached tennis ball to baseball size before the storms weakened as they approached I-35.
That may end up being the worst storm activity Texas sees today, but we are not completely done watching the radar.
Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on this morning’s Hill Country hail, remaining storm chances today, weekend rain potential, and the sharp temperature swings across Texas.
Storms weakened near I-35
The morning storms lost a lot of their punch as they moved east toward I-35. By early afternoon, much of that activity had weakened or dissipated, leaving behind the southward-moving cool front and a few lingering showers.
A couple of storms with lightning may remain possible for a few hours, but the main focus for additional storm chances shifts farther east this afternoon and evening.
Afternoon and evening storm chances
The latest severe weather outlook keeps a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms across parts of Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and Southeast Texas.
That said, the data is not exactly screaming “big Texas severe weather day” for the rest of this afternoon. The better severe storm environment may end up east of Texas later today.
Still, we will keep an eye on the Brazos Valley, East Texas, the Piney Woods, Southeast Texas, and areas closer to the Texas-Louisiana border. If a stronger storm can get going, it may produce hail and gusty winds.
This is not looking like a widespread tornado setup for Texas. The main concerns with any stronger storms would be hail, gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain.
Another morning storm chance Thursday
One thing we will watch early Thursday is the chance for another round of storms around or shortly after sunrise.
Some high-resolution guidance suggests storms may try to develop across parts of the Edwards Plateau and South Texas Thursday morning. If that activity materializes, a few storms could produce hail before weakening after sunrise.
That is not a guarantee, but after what happened this morning, it is worth keeping in the forecast.
Weekend rain chances are increasing
The bigger forecast change is for late Thursday into Friday, Saturday, and even parts of Sunday.
Rain and storm chances are increasing, especially across the southern half and southeastern half of Texas. This will be tied to a weak upper-level system moving in from Mexico and across southern Texas.
This does not look like a classic big, bad, very mad severe weather setup right now. Instead, it looks more like a setup where scattered showers and storms may develop in rounds, especially across South Texas, the coast, Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, East Texas, and nearby areas.
By Saturday afternoon and evening, some rain chances may expand farther north into parts of North Texas as well.
Localized flooding may become an issue
The best rain chances through early next week currently favor the southeastern half of Texas.
Some areas may pick up a quarter inch to an inch of rain, while parts of East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle may see one to two inches. Locally higher totals up to around four inches will be possible if heavier storms repeat over the same locations.
That does not mean everyone gets rain. Some folks may get little to nothing. Others may get a couple of healthy rounds.
Where heavier storms repeat over saturated ground, localized flooding could become an issue, especially in urban areas, poor drainage spots, and places that have already picked up recent rainfall.
Deep South Texas stays hot today
While some parts of Texas are dealing with storms and cooler air, Deep South Texas is dealing with heat.
Heat index values may climb near 110 degrees this afternoon around McAllen and nearby parts of Deep South Texas. The Rio Grande Plains and South Texas will also stay hot, while the cool front brings much cooler temperatures to the northern half of the state.
That is Texas for you: hail in the Hill Country, a freeze risk in the Panhandle, and heat index values near 110 in Deep South Texas all in the same forecast.
Freeze risk in the northern Panhandle tonight
The northern Texas Panhandle may see a freeze tonight.
Areas near Dalhart, Dumas, Perryton, Canadian, and nearby communities could fall into the 20s or low 30s. A hard freeze is possible near Dalhart and up toward the Oklahoma Panhandle.
There is even a small chance of light rain mixing with snow in the northern Panhandle tonight. No accumulations or impacts are expected, but it is May, so we get to mention snow because Mother Nature apparently has a sense of humor.
Temperatures moderate, then heat returns this weekend
Thursday will be pretty pleasant for much of the northern three-quarters of Texas, with many areas in the 70s. South Texas will remain warmer, though temperatures should be a bit less hot than today.
By Friday and Saturday, moisture returns quickly and temperatures rebound. The 90s return to parts of West Texas, Northwest Texas, the Permian Basin, the Big Country, the Panhandle, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Plains.
By Sunday, most of Texas will be back in the 80s and 90s.
Looking into next week, the pattern starts to look more summer-like. The main jet stream lifts farther north, and while storm chances may continue for some areas, we may not be dealing with the same springtime severe weather setup we have had recently.
Bottom line
The worst Texas storms today may have already happened this morning in the Hill Country, where large hail fell in several areas.
A few storms remain possible this afternoon and evening across Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and near the Texas-Louisiana border. The severe weather risk looks limited, but hail and gusty winds are still possible in stronger storms.
Rain and storm chances then increase late this week into the weekend, especially across the southern and southeastern half of Texas. Localized flooding may become an issue where heavier storms repeat over saturated ground.
We will keep an eye on it. You can do the same with radar, but for now, this does not look like a widespread high-end severe weather setup for Texas.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also get local forecasts, radar, alerts, forecast updates, and live coverage in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.